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Non-independent Research Daily Base Metals Report

Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Geordie Wilkes

Geordie Wilkes Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Equity markets were uneasy today as leading indices oscillated between negative and positive territory. The dollar gained ground as treasuries yields also improved. The U.S. 10yr increased to 0.7413%, close to 3 weeks high. We continued to see pressure on the euro following yesterday’s court decision in Germany. European data was weak today, as April’s preliminary Markit services & composite PMIs were 12 and 13.6 respectively. Retail sales for March were -9.2% y/y.

Sentiment on the LME was mixed, nickel and zinc prices were well supported. Nickel prices broke key resistance at $12,300/t and closed at $12,303/t. Zinc broke through resistance at $1,950/t and closed at $1,975/t. The cash to 3-month spread tightened into $1/t back. Copper prices were also firmer today closing at $5,198/t. Ali was marginally weaker, closing at $1,479.50/t.

Spot gold sold off today, breaking through support at $1,700/oz and currently trade at $1,686/oz. Oil prices failed into key resistance today with WTI and Brent trading at $23.62/bl and $29.30/bl respectively.

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.

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