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Non-independent Research Daily Base Metals Report

Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Geordie Wilkes

Geordie Wilkes Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Equity markets were weaker today across the globe as weak economic data, in conjunction with warning signs from the Fed. While Jerome Powell pushed back against negative rates and suggests that more fiscal stimulus may be needed to boost the recovery. Economic data in the UK confirmed the recession as GDP shrank 5.8% in March and 2% in Q1 2020. Industrial production in the UK also declined in March by 4.2% m/m. Cable weakened back towards 1.22 as the dollar index strengthened back towards through 100.

Metals prices were softer today due to weak economic data and key financial figures warning of more economic pain. Copper prices failed above $5,270/t and closed at $5,224/t. Lead and zinc lost the most ground respectively, lead closed below key support at $1,599.5/t as zinc continued lower and closed at $1,975/t. Nickel also closed on the back foot at $12,245/t. Ali was the only one up today but only by $1/t, closing at $1,480/t.

Precious prices were fairly volatile today, with silver whipsawing but trades unchanged at the time of writing. Gold prices gained ground to $1,709/oz.

The oil market saw the first inventory drawdown since January but prices remain weak with WTI and Brent at $25.53/bl and $29.51/bl respectively. Crude inventories declined by 745kbs as Cushing fell 3m barrels.

 

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.

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