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Non-independent Research Daily Base Metals Report

Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Geordie Wilkes

Geordie Wilkes Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

US stocks climbed along with the European market as positive economic data offset the fears about growing COVID-19 cases. ISM US manufacturing PMI expanded in July to 50.9, the fastest pace since March 2019. Additionally, the White House considered boosting unemployment benefits. The dollar advanced to 93.639, and the 10yr yield on Treasuries picked up to 0.5625%. In Europe, manufacturing performance improved to 51.8 in July, the first time since November 2019.

LME metal prices were well bid today as risk appetite re-emerged. Copper prices were firmer, however lack of appetite for prices above $6,500/t, triggered a close at $6,490/t. Aluminium prices broke through the resistance of $1,750/t and closed at $1,752/t. Nickel prices were also firmer and closed at $13,945/t; cash to 3m spreads tightened back into -$50.00/t. Tin prices opened on the front foot today, breaking through the key resistance level of $18,000/t to close at $18,013/t. Zinc and lead prices were both down on the day, closing at $2,324/t and $1,869/t respectively.

Oil futures advanced on the back of signs of economic recovery, with WTI and Brent edging up to $41.10/bl and $44.25/bl respectively. Gold and silver prices were down, to $1,967.76/oz and $24.21/oz at the time of writing.

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.

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