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Non-independent Research Daily Base Metals Report

Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Geordie Wilkes

Geordie Wilkes Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

US stocks edged higher today ahead of the talks about virus relief package in the US. This bill is especially crucial as the enhanced unemployment benefit scheme expired last Friday. Europe’s shares were mixed after disappointing company earnings data. The dollar fell, and the 10yr yield on Treasuries softened to 0.5118%. China’s July vehicle sales have risen 14.90% y/y for the fourth straight month, amid government incentives. Asian stocks were higher despite US-Sino tensions taking a severe turn as President Donald Trump vowed to ban Chinese app TikTok in the US. There has been a large explosion in Beirut.  

Activity on the LME was mixed today with only copper and tin closing lower. Nickel continues to be well bid, but failed above $14,130/t and closed at $14,113/t. Aluminium was slightly firmer and managed to close just off the day’s highs at $1,770/t. Zinc and lead prices were marginally stronger on the day, closing on the front foot at $2,339.50/t and $1,881.50/t respectively. Copper broke support at $6,450/t and closed at $6,453/t.

Oil futures rose despite rising OPEC+ supply to a market hit by a demand slump. At the time of writing, WTI and Brent trade at $41.64/bl and $44.43/bl respectively. Gold and silver found their strength once more, trading up to $1,998.20/oz and $25.54/oz respectively.

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.

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