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Daily Base Metals Report

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US stocks extended a record rally today, mostly driven by positive tech performance. A drop in New York City positive COVID-19 test rate to a pandemic low along with signs of easing outbreak across the country bolstered optimism. The talks surrounding the next pandemic relief package look to be reviving, and the Trump administration sees a smaller, $500bn worth, package to be a more feasible solution. More European countries tightened containment rules after a jump in coronavirus cases, highlighting the gripping effect of the second wave of infections. Eurozone’s CPI fell in July to -0.4% m/m, below expectations. In Asian economies, Hong Kong’s unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in May to July period, as more people returned to work despite the resurgence of the third wave of coronavirus infections. India, the third most infected country in the world, eased borrowing norms, allowing electricity retailers in some states to clear $4.3bn of dues.

Prices on the LME were supported today as risk appetite prompted the market. Zinc gained the most ground, testing the resistance level at $2,520/t, before closing at $2,505/t. Copper prices strengthened to a two-year high, to close near the day’s high at $6,685/t. Aluminium was stronger in the second half of the day, testing resistance at $1,795/t before closing below at $1,793.50/t. Aluminium cash to 3-month spread tightened into -$36.27/t. Nickel was well bid, breaking through the $14,800/t resistance level to close at $14,725/t. Lead closed higher on the day at $2,012/t.

Oil futures have eased from five-month high after surging US gasoline stocks. The OPEC+ cartel is gathering tonight to review the existing production cuts. At the time of writing, WTI and Brent trade at $42.98/bl and $45.45/bl respectively. Gold dropped below the $2,000/oz support level ahead of the Fed Minutes, with gold and silver now trading at $1,965.64/oz and $27.50/oz respectively.

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.