1. Reports
  2. Daily Base Metals Report
Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

Read disclaimer

US stocks advanced today, with tech firms leading the way, on positive economic data. US ISM manufacturing PMI expanded to 56.0 in August, the fastest pace since December 2018, powered by growth in new orders. The dollar continued to soften, and the yield on 10yr US Treasuries fell into 0.6917%. Euro-area inflation came in at -0.2% y/y in August; the decline is seen for the first time in four years. The euro picked up to May 2018 highs of $1.20, supported by dollar’s weakness. Meanwhile, the Chinese factory data improved to 53.1 in August, above expectations, highlighting rising global demand for exports.

LME metal prices were on the front foot today due to improved risk-on sentiment. Aluminium prices were well supported and tested resistance at $1,825/t and closed just off the highs at $1,816.50/t. SHF aluminium, however, was lower on the day, closing at CNY14,570/mt. Nickel was well bid in the first half of the day, testing the resistance level of $15,745/t, before closing below at $15,534/t. Nickel cash to 3m spread tightened further to $24.50/t contango. Copper closed lower on the day, despite hitting a new 26-month high, closing at $6,687.50/t. Zinc and lead consolidated, closing at $2,553/t and $1,972/t respectively. Tin gained the most ground, closing just below the key resistance level of $18,200/t at $18,186/t.

Oil futures trended higher today on the news of positive economic outlook in the US along with China signalling a continued recovery in crude consumption. At the time of writing, WTI and Brent trade at $43.16/bl and $45.89/bl respectively. Precious metals were all higher today, with gold is seen fluctuating around $2,000/oz thanks to a weaker dollar. Gold and silver are seen $1,975.38/oz and $28.45/oz.

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report FX

A morning report covering fundamentals and technicals for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

FX Monthly Report December 2021

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we focus on China, highlighting the fundamentals for the macroeconomy, as well as any changes to the PBOC in the coming months. The recent cut in the risk reserve requirement suggests monetary loosening. We also outline the movement between the onshore and offshore currency for those looking to arbitrage or hedge their exposure. This analysis gives an indication of the average width of the spread what key levels to look out for.

Quarterly Metals Report – Q4 2021

The global macro picture is starting to present some downside risks in the near term as China's economy is set to slow further and supply-chain bottlenecks continue to cap growth. New orders and new export orders in China are contractionary, and we expect demand in Q4. Order backlogs and lead times for products will continue in Q4, limiting growth, and real consumption is weaker than it looks. Higher costs from shipping, raw materials and energy will take their toll on the consumer, and we expect end-user demand to suffer. The final piece of the jigsaw is the reduction in stimulus from central banks and how that will impact financial markets, bond yields, and the dollar has rallied while stocks corrected, but what will this trend continue?