US stocks fluctuated today on the back of solid economic data strengthening the case for aggressive tightening from the Fed. The US payrolls totalled 431,000 in March, slightly below the market consensus but still at a robust level; the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. US manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 57.1 from 58.6 in February, the lowest level since 2020, on the back of a decline in new orders and production. The dollar and the 10yr US Treasury yield both saw robust gains today, with the latter testing 2.40%. The 2yr yield fell below the 10yr for the first time since 2019, another sign of potential upcoming recession. In the meantime, EU inflation came in at 7.5% y/y in March, exceeding estimates, driven by rallying energy prices. Global manufacturing followed suit as the rebound softened, with production in Europe and Asia falling on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Base metals on the LME started the day on the back foot, but robust jobs data in the latter half of the day supported some metals’ performance, helping to close the day on a mixed performance once again. Aluminium and copper were the only ones that struggled to gain footing, as the metals closed at $3,450/t and $10,353/t, respectively. Nickel jumped more than 4% in the second half of the day, erasing this week’s losses to close at $33,223/t; volumes, however, continued to decline even further. Tin and lead also saw some strong gains, closing higher on the day at $44,767/t and $2,449.50/t, respectively.
Oil futures experienced moderate gains after the UK is said to have joined the US in a strategic oil reserve release in an effort to lower oil prices. WTI and Brent traded at $100/bl and $105/bl. Precious metals were on the back foot, with gold and silver softening into $1,927/oz and $24.77/oz.
For more in-depth analysis of base and precious metals, please see our Quarterly Metals report.
All price data is from 01.04.2022 as of 17:30
