1. Reports
  2. Daily Base Metals Report
Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

Read disclaimer

US stocks extended yesterday’s gains on the back of another day of strong corporate earnings results; slowing market growth is already priced in by markets, and upbeat corporate earnings result in positive gains on the day. At the same time, according to Bank of America, global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations reached the highest since May 2020. The dollar retreated, and the 10yr US Treasury yield edged back above 3.00%. The euro rose to the highest level in two weeks, to 1.02, as expectations of 50bps from the ECB on Thursday have increased; the implied rate stands at 38bps. In the meantime, the ECB’s President Lagarde is redoubling efforts to forge agreement on a still-incomplete new crisis tool.

Mixed performance from the metals today as the dollar pulled back some of its gains. Aluminium fell back below the support level of $2,400/t to close at $2,389/t. In the meantime, both imports of exports of aluminium ore and alumina improved in May. According to SMM, In June, China imported 9.42m mt of aluminium ore and concentrate, a decline of 7.5% y/y; the alumina exports were at 190,000mt, a surge of 3,664.8% y/y. Copper followed suit; however, support at $7,235/t capped the downside losses to close at $7,277.50/t. Nickel fluctuated as it remained broadly unchanged on the day at $20,596/t. Lead and zinc performance diverged as the metals closed at $1,986.50/t and $2,948.50/t, respectively.
After a volatile run today, oil futures slumped back below $100/t; earlier today, the futures posted the biggest

advance since May. Natural gas prices continue to climb as the European Commission doesn’t expect Russia to restart a key natural gas pipeline this week. According to IMF, a cut-off in Russian natural gas supplies could result in a hit of 2.65% to the EU’s economy. Both gold and silver gained footing to trade at $1,712/oz and $18.81/oz, respectively.

For more in-depth analysis of base and precious metals, our Q2 2022 Quarterly Metals report is out now!

All price data is from 19.07.2022 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report FX

A morning report covering fundamentals and technicals for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.