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Daily Base Metals Report

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US stocks declined today, reversing earlier gains as markets assessed the impact of weaker economic figures as the Fed prepares to deliver on another aggressive rate hike tomorrow. US consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since February 2021 in July, causing consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases as economic momentum struggles. New home sales declined for the fifth straight month this year, down to a 2-year low as high prices and mortgage rates defer potential buyers. The dollar gained a footing above 107, and the 10yr US Treasury yield continued down to 2.76%. The gap between the 3-month and 10-year bonds continues to diminish, falling to 21.56; in each of the recessions of the last decades, this gap inverted strongly, usually a year prior to the next recession. In the meantime, the IMF cut the global growth outlook once again, with 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023.

Another day of mixed market performance among the base metals group, as sentiment weakened in the latter part of the day. Aluminium found resistance at $2,440/t before edging lower to $2,421.50/t. Likewise, copper tested the resistance level of $7,770/t before trading down to $7,536.50/t; the metal remains higher day on day. Nickel sold off, falling below $24,500/t to $21,571/t. Lead and zinc closed marginally higher at $2,023/t and $3,039/t, respectively. China's economic recovery gained pace in July as business activity gained pace and confidence increased, according to the Bloomberg aggregate index. The property sector continues to struggle, with prices and purchases falling so far this year.

Oil futures followed the broader market lower today amid intensifying recessionary fears, bringing WTI and Brent down to $95/bl and $104/bl. Gold and silver remained broadly unchanged at $1,717/oz and $18.59/oz, respectively.

All price data is from 26.07.2022 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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