1. Reports
  2. Daily Base Metals Report
Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

Read disclaimer

US stocks fluctuated after a disappointing economic growth figure, clouding the outlook for soft landing from the Fed. US GDP fell by 0.9% annualised rate, putting the economy in a technical recession; personal consumption grew by 1.0%, a slowdown from Q1. As a result, the 10yr US Treasury yield slipped below 2.7%, the lowest level since April; 2yr yield fell by more than 20bps to 2.89%. At the same time, the Fed’s Chair Powell rejected the speculation of recession in the US in yesterday’s meeting. US mortgage rates for 30-year loans dipped to 5.3% for the first time in a month. US initial jobless claims fell once again to 256,000 in the week ending Jul 23, still holding at November highs. The dollar remained unchanged at 106.5. Elsewhere, German inflation resumed the climb, after a slight dip in June, as it grew by 8.5% y/y, as the impact of the temporary relief measures from the government wore off. Euro-area confidence hit the weakest point int 17 months as recession fears grew strong in July.

Broad gains were seen across the LME exchange today, following the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates by 75bps. The gains were capped after another contraction in US economic growth brought forward the speculation of softer Fed tightening in September. Zinc gapped higher on the open, at $3,095/t, before steadily gaining pace to close at $3,160/t. Likewise, copper gained a footing to test resistance $7,830/t before trading down to close at $7,762/t. Aluminium fluctuated during the trading hours to close at $2,456/t. Aluminium LME stocks continued to decline, falling consecutively for 2-months straight to reach 31-year lows of 146,350, further highlighting marker tightness. Nickel whipsawed between highs and lows of $22,250/t and $21,500/t, respectively, before settling at $21,935/t. Only lead closed lower at $1,997/t.

Oil futures fluctuated after US GDP figure dimmed the demand outlook. WTI and Brent trade at $98/bl and $107/bl, respectively. Silver rallied on the back of the Fed optimism, jumping back to $19.80/oz; gold gains were much more moderate as it edged higher to $1,754/oz.

All price data is from 28.07.2022 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report FX

A morning report covering fundamentals and technicals for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.