1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer


The Euro-zone PMI services-sector index was revised marginally lower to 52.6 from 52.8 previously, but the composite index was unchanged at a 6-month high of 51.6. The German composite index dipped to a 2-month low amid export pressures.
US ADP employment data recorded an increase in private-sector jobs of 183,000 for February and above consensus forecasts of 170,000, although there was a sharp downward revision for January to 209,000 from the 291,000 reported previously. The latest release is likely to raise fresh doubts over the accuracy of the data ahead of Friday’s jobs data.
The ISM non-manufacturing index strengthened to a 12-month high of 57.3 for February from 55.5 previously and above consensus forecasts of 54.9. Although business activity faded slightly, new orders expanded at a stronger pace and the highest reading since June 2018. Employment increased at a faster pace, but the rate of price increases lowed on the month.
The Markit PMI services-sector index, however, was confirmed at 49.4 for February, the weakest reading for over six years. The sharp divergence between indices increased underlying uncertainty and there were expectations of a sharp downturn for March readings. The Fed’s Beige Book reported modest to moderate growth in the latest period, but the COVID-19 coronavirus was cited as a risk and already weighing on travel and tourism. The dollar remained vulnerable on yield grounds
The Euro was hampered by renewed fears over the Italian coronavirus outbreak with all schools and universities closed for 2 weeks. The dollar remained vulnerable, however, on low yields with the Euro near 1.1130 and little changed on Thursday.


US equity futures held gains into the New York open which limited potential defensive demand for the Japanese yen.
Treasuries continued to move higher, however, with the 10-year yield held below 1.00%. Although there was a stronger ISM non-manufacturing reading, the dollar struggled to make headway and was held below 107.50 into the European close.
US equity market strengthened sharply in late trading with increased confidence that Biden would win the Democrat Party nomination also a positive factor for stocks. The dollar still struggled to make any impression against majors.
Asian markets still posted net gains, but California announced a state of emergency due to the coronavirus which dampened sentiment and the 10-year yield was only just above 1.00% which limited underlying dollar support, especially with some speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates again at the March 18th meeting and it retreated to the 107.25 area.


The final UK PMI services index was revised marginally lower to 53.2 from the flash reading of 53.3 with a slowdown in the rate of growth in new business, primarily due to the impact of cancellations and project delays due to the coronavirus outbreak. There was a significant increase in cost pressures and charges increased at the fastest pace since November 2017. Higher inflation pressures will make the Bank of England’s policy balancing act even more difficult.
Incoming Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the bank could take bank rate down to about 0.1%, but there is limited policy ammunition. He also commented that further evidence was needed before making a decision which curbed speculation of an emergency rate cut. Sterling secured an element of support from expectations that the central bank had less scope to cut interest rates compared to other central banks while fiscal policy could be boosted significantly. There were gains to 1.2870 against the dollar while the Euro retreated to near 0.8650 and Sterling held steady on Thursday.


Swiss consumer prices increased 0.1% for February, with the year-on-year rate declining to -0.1% from 0.2% compared with market expectations of 0.1%. The data will maintain National Bank unease over franc strength and reinforce demands for gains to be resisted.
The Swiss currency was broadly resilient during the day despite gains for global equities with the Euro held around 1.0660 while the dollar was held below 0.9600. Rhetoric from bank officials will continue to be monitored closely ahead of the policy meeting later in March with the franc little changed on Thursday.



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week we focus on USDSGD and whether the SDG recent strength is sustainable given the deteriorating global outlook. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.