1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer



US non-farm payrolls increased 1.37mn for August from a revised 1.73mn the previous month and slightly below consensus forecasts of 1.40mn. The increase in manufacturing jobs was held to 29,000, but there was a strong increase in retail jobs and a further increase in hospitality. There was a big boost in government jobs of over 340,000 as payrolls were increased on a temporary basis to manage this year’s census.

The unemployment rate declined to a 5-month low of 8.4% from 10.2% and well below expectations of 9.8% as the household survey recorded a sharp increase in employment. Average hourly earnings increased 4.7% in the year, unchanged from the previous reading.

Although the unemployment rate declined sharply, there were concerns over underlying employment trends as the increase in private payrolls slowed. There was also a further sharp increase in the number of long-term unemployed which will increase concerns over longer-term economic scarring.

There was choppy trading following the release with the dollar initially making net gains, although the Euro again found support below the 1.1800 level. The US currency gradually lost ground amid underlying negative sentiment and the lack of yield support with expectations of medium-term losses.

CFTC data recorded a decline in long Euro positions in the latest week, although the total was still close to 200,000 contracts, maintaining the risk of a further correction.

The ECB will be a key focus this week while market conditions will be subdued on Monday given that US markets will be closed with the Euro around 1.1830.



The US equity futures failed to gain support from the labour-market data and Wall Street indices moved sharply lower at the market open. In this environment, the yen gain renewed defensive support and the dollar was unable to make significant headway against the Japanese currency.

Boston Fed President Rosengren stated that the market had got the message that interest rates in the US would not be increasing anytime soon and Chair Powell reiterated that case for low-interest rates in the years ahead. There should be no comments this week with a blackout in force ahead of the September 16th meeting.

The dollar settled around 106.25 as US yields declined. Chinese trade data was mixed as exports advanced 9.5% in the year to August in yuan terms, but there was a 2.1% decline in imports compared with expectations of a slight increase which triggered some reservations over Chinese domestic demand.

Asian equities overall moved lower amid reservations over risk conditions with the dollar little changed around 106.25 amid fragile US sentiment.



The UK PMI construction index declined to 54.6 for August from 58.1 previously and well below consensus forecasts of 58.5. Although the sector remained in expansion territory, there was a net slowdown in growth with activity hampered by underlying uncertainty.

Bank of England MPC member Saunders noted that the UK economic recovery had been stronger than expected in May, but the window of favourable conditions was now fading. He also commented that the bank needed to act against downside risks and he expected a further increase in quantitative easing would be needed.

The weaker than expected data and cautious remarks from Saunders put Sterling on the defensive into the New York open.

The UK currency dipped below 1.32 after the US employment data, but gradually regained ground amid independent support and dollar losses to trade above 1.3250.

Chief Negotiator Frost warned that the EU stance may limit progress that can be made in talks which resume on Tuesday and also warned that the UK was not afraid to walk away from talks. There were also reports of new UK legislation which would over-ride the withdrawal agreement on Northern Ireland which would increase tensions sharply. Prime Minister Johnson also stated that a deal was needed by October 15th to ensure ratification and both sides should move on if there is no agreement by then. The sharp increase in tensions undermined Sterling with a retreat to near 1.3210 against the dollar while the Euro advanced to around 0.8950.




The Swiss currency edged lower ahead of the New York open and was unable to gain support from a fresh decline in US equities. Despite a mixed performance, the Euro moved above 1.0800 and the dollar pushed to highs above 0.9150 before retreating slightly.

There is likely to be cautious ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting with the rhetoric important for medium-term Swiss currency moves and potential policy responses. National Bank rhetoric will also be monitored closely and the Euro held above 1.0800 on Monday with the dollar around 0.9140.  




This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.