1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer


Euro-zone M3 money supply growth accelerated to 10.4% in the year to September from 9.5% previously and strongest reading since June 2008. The data reinforced evidence that money supply is ample to fuel the recovery, although private-sector loan growth remained subdued at 3.1% from 3.0% previously.

There were still expectations that overall growth and inflation concerns would lead to a dovish ECB stance at Thursday’s policy meeting.

US durable goods orders increased 1.9% for September after a 0.5% gain previously and above consensus forecasts of 0.4%. Underlying orders increased 0.8% on the month after a 1.0% gain for August with a solid increase in capital spending.

Consumer confidence declined slightly to 100.9 for October from 101.3 previously and below consensus of 102.0. There was a significant advance for the current conditions component and respondents were more confident in the labour market trends, but the expectations index declined.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index strengthened to 29 for October from 21 previously with a strong reading for new orders and the labour-market indicators also tightened on the month. Data releases continued to have little impact with markets continuing to focus on the US Presidential and Congressional elections next week.

There were further concerns surrounding Euro-zone coronavirus developments with reports that French President Macron was no longer ruling out a national lockdown. The single currency was initially resilient despite these concerns and the US dollar lost ground against commodity currencies, but the Euro struggled to make significant headway. The Euro also lost ground after the European close amid rumours that France was considering a month-long national lockdown. With expectations that Germany would tighten restrictions on Wednesday, the Euro retreated to below 1.1800 and maintained a defensive tone on Wednesday with a dip to 1.1770.



European equity markets moved lower on Tuesday and US markets also surrendered early gains which provided an element of yen support on the crosses. Overall, the dollar retreated to below 104.50 amid wider losses and a decline in US Treasury yields.

China’s central bank announced that it would drop the counter-cyclical factor in setting the daily fixing. There was some speculation that this would weaken the yuan slightly and potentially offer some dollar support. The Chinese currency did lose ground on Wednesday, although wider risk factors dominated market sentiment.

US futures edged lower on Wednesday, although Asian bourses were mixed. There was further uncertainty over the US election developments with markets adopting a more defensive stance, especially given unease over the risk of a disputed election outcome and traders adopted a more defensive stance.

The yen continued to secure defensive support with the dollar dipping to 5-week lows near 104.20. The Bank of Japan is not expected to make significant policy changes on Thursday, but markets will be wary over the risks of verbal intervention from the Finance Ministry.


The UK CBI retail sales index dipped sharply to -23 for October from 11 previously and well below consensus forecasts of 1. Sales are expected to decline again at a faster pace in November while orders placed with suppliers declined for the 18th successive month. The data maintained underlying concerns over spending trends.

Overall confidence in the economic outlook remained weak, particularly with further coronavirus restrictions undermining activity in the hospitality sector and potentially having a wider impact on confidence and activity. Sterling was, however, resilient with markets still expecting that some form of trade deal would be secured with the EU during November. The Euro edged lower to the 0.9050 area while Sterling secured limited net gains against the US dollar.

After the European close, EU Council President Michel stated that Brexit talks are at a most difficult point and markets inevitably remained extremely cautious over the outlook. Sterling, however, held steady on Wednesday to trade just above 1.3050 against the dollar while the Euro weakened to near 0.9020.



The Euro posted net gains ahead of the US open with a move to near 1.0750 against the franc while the dollar briefly touched 0.9100. The Swiss currency secured renewed support in US trading with markets fretting over the longer-term implications of extremely expansionary monetary and fiscal policies across all main economies.

The Swiss currency secured net gains on Wednesday with US and European coronavirus developments provided net support and the Euro retreated to the 1.0700 level before recovering slightly with the dollar re-testing 0.9100. The National Bank stance will continue to be watched closely in the short term.



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Daily market commentary on LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning.

FX Monthly Report December 2021

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we focus on China, highlighting the fundamentals for the macroeconomy, as well as any changes to the PBOC in the coming months. The recent cut in the risk reserve requirement suggests monetary loosening. We also outline the movement between the onshore and offshore currency for those looking to arbitrage or hedge their exposure. This analysis gives an indication of the average width of the spread what key levels to look out for.

Quarterly Metals Report – Q4 2021

The global macro picture is starting to present some downside risks in the near term as China's economy is set to slow further and supply-chain bottlenecks continue to cap growth. New orders and new export orders in China are contractionary, and we expect demand in Q4. Order backlogs and lead times for products will continue in Q4, limiting growth, and real consumption is weaker than it looks. Higher costs from shipping, raw materials and energy will take their toll on the consumer, and we expect end-user demand to suffer. The final piece of the jigsaw is the reduction in stimulus from central banks and how that will impact financial markets, bond yields, and the dollar has rallied while stocks corrected, but what will this trend continue?