1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer



German industrial production increased 1.6% for September after a 0.5% previously, although this was below consensus forecasts. Although US developments dominated during the day, there were further concerns surrounding Euro-zone coronavirus developments as France registered a fresh record high in cases for Friday.

The dollar continued to lose ground ahead of the New York open as Biden edged towards an Electoral College victory.

US non-farm payrolls increased 638,000 for October after a revised gain of 672,000 the previous month, although this was slightly above consensus forecasts of around 610,000. Manufacturing job gains were held to 38,000 for the month which was below expectations, but construction jobs increased 84,000. There was solid growth in the retail sector, but government jobs fell sharply for the second successive month as census-related jobs declined again.

The unemployment rate declined to a 7-month low of 6.9% from 7.9% and below expectations of 7.6% with the household survey recording a very sharp increase in employment of 2.34mn on the month. The dollar struggled to regain ground, although further losses were limited with the Euro settling around 1.1875.

CFTC data recorded a further decline in long Euro positions to 140,000 contracts in the latest week from 156,000 previously, maintaining the risk of sharp position adjustment if sentiment changes. Counting in the US Presidential election continued over the weekend with networks calling the election for Biden after he secured a winning margin in Pennsylvania. There are still four states undeclared, but Biden has over 270 votes in the Electoral College. The dollar remained on the defensive on Monday and traded at 10-week lows amid strong risk appetite and negative real interest rates. The Euro edged towards the 1.1900 level despite Euro-zone unease.



US yields moved higher following the US employment data, but the dollar as unable to generate any significant momentum and the US currency dipped to fresh 8-month lows near 103.20 against the Japanese currency. Markets will monitor political rhetoric on China from both Biden and President Trump in the short term. The Chinese yuan opened sharply higher in Asian trading on Monday and strengthened to 28-month highs amid hopes for improved US-China trade ties. There was also some evidence that the Chinese central bank was edging towards a slightly less aggressive set of monetary policies.

The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index strengthened to -13 for November from -26 previously while there was a small improvement in the services index to -13 from -16. The Bank of Japan reiterated that there would be no early move to remove monetary stimulus. The yen lost some defensive support as equities continued to move higher and the dollar edged above the 103.50. Markets will also be monitoring the potential for a stimulus package before the Congressional session ends next month. There will also be unease over the risk of verbal intervention from the Japanese Finance Ministry given reservations over yen strength.




The Halifax house price index increased 0.3% for October with the year-on-year increase at 7.5% from 7.3% previously. The firm global risk tone continued to underpin Sterling during Friday. There were further concerns over the UK economic outlook, although the near-term impact was offset by expectations that further fiscal and monetary support would underpin demand. The UK currency strengthened to 8-week highs near 1.3180 against the weaker dollar with Euro support below 0.9000.

EU Commission President Von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Johnson held a phone conversation on Saturday and both agreed that progress had been made, but that there were still significant differences. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier and his team will be in London this week for further talks and there will be strong pressure to conclude a framework deal this week as time pressures intensify. CFTC data recorded a further small increase in short Sterling contracts to 11,000 contracts in the latest week from 7,000 previously which does not suggests that hedge funds were positioned for Sterling gains. The UK currency held firm on Monday amid solid global risk appetite and traded at 10-week highs around 1.3180 against the dollar with the Euro just above 0.9000.



The Euro was again unable to make significant headway on Friday and settled just below the 1.0700 level at the European close. The dollar remained firmly on the defensive and dipped to 70-month lows just below the 0.9000 level. Swiss unemployment edged lower to 3.3% from 3.4%

The franc was underpinned by further strength in precious metals and longer-term expectations that the extremely expansionary monetary policies by global central banks would support the Swiss currency. This support was offset to some extent by strength in equities with the dollar again just below 0.9000.




This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.