1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer


German factory orders increased 1.2% for February, in line with consensus forecasts. The Euro held a steady tone in early Europe on Thursday with a further element of hope that there would be a notable increase in EU vaccination rates which would boost the potential for economic recovery.

Minutes from the ECB March policy meeting stated that policymakers did not want to give the impression of being overly focussed on bond yields.

The dollar was unable to make any headway following relatively dovish Fed minutes and the Euro posted limited net gains.

US initial jobless claims increased to 744,000 in the latest week from a revised 728,000 previously and above consensus forecasts of 680,000. Continuing claims edged lower to 3.73mn from 3.75mn, but also above market expectations while pandemic assistance claims declined slightly on the week.

The dollar was unable to gain any support into the European close with some renewed reservations over the underlying labour-market trends.

Fed Chair Powell stated that monetary and fiscal policy, allied with the vaccination programme, is creating a brighter outlook. He also noted, however, that he wants to see a string of months like the latest strong jobs report and that the unevenness of the recovery is a serious issue.

Powell added that the Fed needs to keep supporting the economy and there is a risk of a setback to the recovery if there is a renewed pick up in cases. He reiterated that short-term increases in inflation would be transitory. The rhetoric overall remained dovish and the dollar retreated to fresh 2-week lows.

The Euro pushed back above the 1.1900 level to highs around 1.1925 and commodity currencies posted tentative net gains. German industrial production was weaker than expected with a 1.6% February decline. The dollar resisted further selling on Friday with the Euro just below the 1.1900 level as tight ranges prevailed.



The dollar was unable to make headway in early Europe on Thursday and then declined sharply at the New York open as US yields continued to move lower. The 10-year yield dipped to 2-week lows around 1.63% which undermined the US currency and the dollar retreated sharply to lows at 109.00.

There was little change in yields following Powell’s comments with the dollar recovering slightly as stronger equity markets curbed potential demand for the Japanese yen as the S&P 500 index posted a fresh record high. San Francisco Fed President Daly maintained the dovish tone from a majority of officials with comments that the Fed must see and not just expect substantial further progress in achieving the goals.

Chinese data recorded a 4.4% increase in producer prices in the year to March from 1.7% previously, maintaining unease over upward pressure on costs.

Overall bond yields were little changed in Asia and equity futures edged higher. Narrow ranges prevailed with the dollar posting limited net gains to around 109.40.



The UK PMI construction index strengthened to 61.7 for March from 53.3 the previous month which was well above consensus forecasts of 55.0 and the strongest reading since September 2014. There was a further strong increase in new orders as confidence remained strong while employment also increased. Price pressures also increased sharply during the month with the fastest rate of increase in input prices since 2008.

The data maintained confidence in the UK recovery outlook, but Sterling overall was unable to secure significant support as the sharp decline this week continued to undermine sentiment. The inability to advance on robust data illustrated an important danger sign for Sterling bulls.

There were further net uncertainties over the UK vaccine programme and a suspicion that markets had been too pessimistic over the Euro-zone outlook.

Overall, the Euro strengthened to highs around 0.8680 while the UK currency was unable to make significant headway against the US dollar.

Sterling was unable to recover ground on Friday amid further reservations over the AstraZeneca vaccine with a retreat to near 1.3700 against the US currency.



The Swiss franc maintained a firm tone into Thursday’s New York open as US bond yields continued to decline. Gains in precious metals also tended to provide an element of Swiss currency support. The Euro retreated to test support close to 1.1000 and the dollar also retreated to lows below 0.9250.

The franc held a firm tone later in the day despite net gains for global equities as more defensive currencies continued to gain net support.

The Swiss currency again resisted selling on Friday as bond yields held in tight ranges with the dollar settling close to 0.9250.



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week we focus on USDSGD and whether the SDG recent strength is sustainable given the deteriorating global outlook. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.