1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer



ECB chief economist Lane stated that prices increases due to bottlenecks are not real inflation and that the central bank still has a lot to do to raise inflation. The dovish rhetoric continued to have only a limited impact on the Euro as yields held firm with consolidation ahead of the New York open.

US initial jobless claims declined to 444,000 in the latest week from a revised 478,000 previously and slightly below consensus forecasts of 450,000 while continuing claims increased to 3.75mn in the week from 3.64mn previously. The data indicated a gradual improvement in the labour market.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined to 31.5 for May from 50.2 previously and below consensus forecasts of 43.0. There was also a slight slowdown in the rate of new orders and shipments growth. There was a solid increase in the number of employees while the workweek increased strongly.

There was a further increase in the prices paid index to the highest level since March 1980 while prices received also increased at a faster rate with the highest reading since May 1981. Companies were slightly less optimistic over the 6-month outlook and expect that prices will increase at a faster rate than inflation.  

Despite elevated inflation readings, the data had only a limited market impact in currency markets. After regaining some ground on Wednesday following the Fed minutes, the US currency lost ground with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a very dovish stance in the short term.

Overall, the dollar continued to drift lower amid a lack of yield support with the Euro continuing to creep higher. The US currency was unable to regain territory on Friday and the Euro edged higher towards 1.2250 ahead of important Euro-zone PMI business confidence data due just after the European open.




US Treasuries were little changed into the New York open and there was only a limited reaction to the economic data releases, although the Philly Fed prices data maintained underlying expectations over higher inflation rates. The dollar was unable to make any headway and a dip back below 109.00 triggered fresh selling.

Equities posted net gains, but there was a fresh decline in US bond yields which sapped US currency support and the dollar was close to 108.80 at the European close.

Dallas Fed President Kaplan reiterated his call that it would be wise to take the foot gently off the accelerator in order to mage the economic transition more effectively, but market reaction was limited with expectations that a majority of the open market committee would favour a dovish stance.

The Chinese central bank stated that it was not tightening policy and would continue to maintain continuity and stability in policy.  Confidence in the Japanese outlook remained fragile with a decline in the PMI manufacturing index to 52.5 for May from 53.6 previously and underlying yen sentiment remained weak. Overall risk conditions held steady, although the dollar was unable to make headway and traded close to 108.80 in early Europe on Friday with the Euro around 133.0. 




The CBI industrial trends orders index strengthened to 17 for May from -8 previously and well above consensus forecasts of zero. This was also the first positive reading for over two years and the strongest reading since December 2017. Output strengthened, although exports orders remained subdued. Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe commented that house-price strength during the recession is striking, but the sector is expected to cool as government support is withdrawn.

Sterling sentiment held steady into the New York open and the UK currency edged higher into the European close. Risk conditions stabilised and concerns over the Indian variant eased slightly which limited the scope for selling. The UK currency moved above 1.4150 against the dollar and the Euro settled close to 0.8620.

UK consumer confidence improved further to a 14-month high of -9 for May from -15 previously. April retail sales volumes surged 9.2% compared with consensus forecasts of 4.5% with a year-on-year increase of 42.4% given the slump last year. Sterling held firm to trade fractionally below 1.4200 against the dollar after the data with the Euro around 0.8620 with the UK currency also able to advance against commodity currencies as overall UK sentiment held firm.




The Swiss currency was able to resist further selling pressure on Thursday with a scaling back of short positions as the Euro was unable to hold above the 1.1000 level. The dollar lost ground once again and retreated back below the 0.9000 level.

Markets were continuing to monitor global inflation developments during the day while there were further choppy conditions in precious metals and big moves in cryptocurrencies. The Euro failed to regain ground on Friday and traded around 1.0970 while the dollar edged lower to 0.8965.




This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week we focus on USDSGD and whether the SDG recent strength is sustainable given the deteriorating global outlook. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.