1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer



The Euro was held in tight ranges ahead of Monday’s New York open with a lack of trading volumes limiting market moves. The dollar held steady and the Euro was again unable to break above the 1.1800 level against the US currency amid expectations over an accommodative ECB monetary policy.

The New York Empire manufacturing index dipped to 18.3 for August from 43.0 the previous month and well below consensus forecasts of 29.0 for the month. There was a sharp slowdown in the new orders index and a substantial dip in shipments, although unfilled orders increased at a slightly faster rate.

There was a reduction in the rate of employment growth, but cost pressures remained high and prices charged increased at a faster pace to a fresh record high. Companies were more optimistic over the outlook and expected price pressures to ease only slightly over the next six months.

The dollar overall was able to post limited net gains after the Wall Street open equities dipped lower and risk appetite remained more fragile. Overall ranges were still narrow with the Euro around 1.1775 as trading volumes remained low.

The latest US retail sales data is due for release on Tuesday and a firm release would help offset the impact of the much weaker than expected consumer confidence data released on Monday while a weak report would tend to reinforce market concerns. The dollar edged higher on Tuesday amid an element of defensive demand amid reservations over coronavirus developments and the Euro edged lower to around 1.1765 amid choppy trading conditions.




US Media reports on Monday indicated that the Japanese government was likely to extend the current coronavirus emergency measures until September 12th and could also extend the measures to additional prefectures which maintained unease over domestic economic trends.

US equities retreated sharply in early trading and Treasuries also posted net gains with the 10-year yield just below 1.25%. The dollar dipped to low at 109.10 before regaining some territory as Wall Street equities pared losses and Treasuries retreated from their best levels. Underlying confidence was still fragile with the dollar held around 109.25 at the European close with the yen resilient on the crosses.

Markets continued to debate potential Federal Reserve policy actions ahead of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech next week. Boston head Rosengren stated that he would back a tapering announcement in September if there was another strong employment report early next month. He added that his preference would be to start reducing bond purchases in October or November. Risk conditions were fragile in Asia on Tuesday with further concerns over regional coronavirus developments. The dollar was held around 109.30 with the Euro around 128.60 as markets continued to monitor overall risk appetite.




Sterling struggled to secure independent direction on Monday, especially with a lack of domestic data and uncertainty ahead of this week’s releases. Risk appetite was more vulnerable during the day which hampered the UK currency to some extent, although overall selling pressure was light.

The UK currency settled close to 1.3850 against the dollar while the Euro continued to test the 0.8500 support area.

Sterling edged lower in early Europe on Tuesday with sentiment eroded by more vulnerable global risk conditions amid low trading volumes.

The latest UK labour-market data recorded a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in the three months to June from 4.8% previously, but there was a smaller than expected decline in the claimant count. Headline average earnings increased 8.8% in the year to June from 7.3% previously, reinforcing expectations of higher earnings trends. The immediate reaction was limited with Sterling around 1.3820 against the firm dollar while the Euro edged higher to 0.8515.




Swiss total sight deposits increased to CHF714.6bn in the latest week from CHF713.2bn previously which suggests that the National bank has been intervening to curb franc gains, although the overall amounts remain limited which did not suggest major determination to weaken the Swiss currency.

The franc secured further gains on Monday as weaker risk conditions underpinned support. The Euro dipped sharply with a slide below the 1.0800 level triggering further selling despite the possibility of National Bank franc sales. The Euro slipped to lows below 1.0740 and near 2021 lows while the dollar retreated to lows at 0.9110.

The franc maintained a firm tone on Tuesday with the dollar around 0.9130.

Technical Levels



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Daily market commentary on LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning.

FX Monthly Report December 2021

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we focus on China, highlighting the fundamentals for the macroeconomy, as well as any changes to the PBOC in the coming months. The recent cut in the risk reserve requirement suggests monetary loosening. We also outline the movement between the onshore and offshore currency for those looking to arbitrage or hedge their exposure. This analysis gives an indication of the average width of the spread what key levels to look out for.

Quarterly Metals Report – Q4 2021

The global macro picture is starting to present some downside risks in the near term as China's economy is set to slow further and supply-chain bottlenecks continue to cap growth. New orders and new export orders in China are contractionary, and we expect demand in Q4. Order backlogs and lead times for products will continue in Q4, limiting growth, and real consumption is weaker than it looks. Higher costs from shipping, raw materials and energy will take their toll on the consumer, and we expect end-user demand to suffer. The final piece of the jigsaw is the reduction in stimulus from central banks and how that will impact financial markets, bond yields, and the dollar has rallied while stocks corrected, but what will this trend continue?