1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer


The French PMI manufacturing index edged lower to 57.3 for August from 58.0 previously and in line with market expectations while there was a retreat in the services sector index to 56.4 from 56.8 previously. The German manufacturing index retreated more than expected to 62.7 from 65.9 while the services-sector index beat consensus forecasts with a retreat to 61.5 from 61.8 the previous month.

The Euro-zone manufacturing index declined to 61.5 from 62.8 with the services index marginally lower at 59.7 from 59.8 with little net change in Euro-zone confidence.

The German Bundesbank warned that growth could undershoot projections this year due to virus resurgence and there was a risk that some restrictions could be re-imposed in the autumn if infections continue to increase. The Euro held a steady tone ahead of the New York open with a weaker dollar the main driving force.

The US PMI manufacturing index retreated to 61.2 from 63.4 and below consensus forecasts of 62.5 while the services index registered a sharper decline to an 8-month low of 55.2 from 59.9 and well below expectations of 59.5. Overall business confidence strengthened slightly on the month despite delta-variant concerns while there were further important supply-side difficulties with strong upward pressure on costs.

The dollar retreated following the weaker than expected US business confidence data with the Euro edging higher. There were increased doubts whether the Federal Reserve would back an early reduction in bond purchases, especially in view of concerns over the delta variant which could dampen US demand.

The dollar continued to edge lower with the Euro testing the 1.1750 area. Volatility eased later in the day while the dollar was unable to regain ground in Asia on Tuesday as overall risk conditions held firm. Commodity currencies posted further net gains and the Euro settled just below 1.1750.


US Treasuries edged lower into Monday’s New York open, but there was a reversal following the PMI data with the 10-year yield edging lower to 1.26% which limited the potential for dollar support. There was, however, a stronger trend surrounding risk appetite which curbed potential yen demand.

US existing home sales increased to an annual rate of 5.99mn for July from 5.87mn previously as low interest rates underpinned confidence.

The dollar was unable to regain ground and edged lower to 109.70 at the New York close as wider US losses dominated.

Overall risk appetite held firm in Asia on Tuesday which dampened yen demand as markets continued to monitor the impact of supply-side shortages. Concerns over the delta variant were contained, although there was still a high degree of unease over conditions. The dollar edged higher to 109.80 with the Euro just below 129.00.


According to flash data, the UK PMI manufacturing index declined to a 5-month low of 60.1 for August from 60.4 in July, but slightly above consensus forecasts of 59.5 while the services-sector index declined more sharply to a 6-month low of 55.5 from 59.6 and below market expectations of 59.0.

Although the data overall was weaker than expected, there was little impact on Sterling with markets focussing on supply-side pressures and global risk trends.

There were further important supply-side difficulties with the sharpest impact on output since the survey began in 1998. There was further upward pressure on wages, although the increase in prices eased slightly on the month.

The CBI industrial trends index edged higher to 18 from 17 previously and slightly above market expectations. There was, however a disappointing data on exports while prices continued to increase at a rapid pace. Data was mixed, but Sterling posted gains later in Europe with support from a stronger tone surrounding risk appetite.

There was a move above the 1.3700 level against the dollar after the US data and highs around 1.3730 while the Euro retreated slightly to below 0.8560. Trading ranges narrowed on Tuesday with Sterling around 1.3740 against the dollar while the Euro tested support below the 0.8550 level as global risk appetite held firm.


The Swiss franc was resilient on Monday despite a significant net strengthening in risk appetite on the day with markets still reluctant to sell the domestic currency.

Swiss sight deposits increased slightly to CHF715.0bn from CHF714.6bn previously which suggested that the National Bank had not been intervening aggressively to weaken the franc despite significant franc gains.

The Euro consolidated around 1.0720 with the dollar retreating to around 0.9125 and narrow ranges prevailed on Tuesday with risk conditions remaining under scrutiny.

Technical Levels



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q3 2022

Our analysts provide an in-depth analysis of the metals market and current macroeconomic conditions. The environment has weakened significantly as growth fears rise amid persistent high inflation. Central banks are data-dependent, which could mean they slow rate hikes as growth starts to slow. This has meant a downside to the US 10yr yield, but also we see a downside to rate hikes in Q4. Europe will likely enter a recession before the US and take longer to recover, but material availability is significantly lower, shown by low inventories.

FX Monthly Report June 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look into the JPY and the pressure the BOJ is under to change their monetary policy as JPY continues to weaken against major currencies. Economic data is weakening and inflation is less of a problem in Japan, but yields continue to test the cap.