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EUR / USD

 

Euro-zone industrial produced declined 0.2% for September, although the year-on-year growth strengthened slightly to 5.2% from 4.9% previously.

The US JOLTS data recorded a slight decline in job openings to 10.44mn for September from a revised 10.63mn the previous month, although this was above consensus forecasts and still close to record highs. The quits rate also hit a record high which suggests that the labour market overall remained notably tight.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index declined to a 10-year low of 66.8 for November from 71.7 in October and below expectations of 72.4. The current conditions index declined to 73.2 from 77.7 previously while the expectations component retreated to 62.8 from 67.9.

The one-year inflation expectations index edged higher to 4.9% from 4.8% with the 5-year rate steady at 2.9%.

Within the data, there was evidence that inflationary pressures were undermining confidence which will ensure further strong debate over the outlook.

New York Fed President Williams focused on potential inequalities of inflation and there were no direct comments on monetary policy.

The dollar edged lower after the US data, although overall ranges were narrow and the Euro was unable to make any significant headway as it tended to lose ground on most major crosses. Overall, the Euro settled just below 1.1450 and close to the lowest levels since July 2020.

There were still reservations over the increase in Euro-zone coronavirus rates and risk of further restrictions which will tend to dampen activity. The dollar was unable to make further headway on Monday and retreated from 15-month highs while the Euro recovered slightly to around 1.1460.

 

JPY

 

US equity futures strengthened towards the European close while US yields edged higher to reverse initial losses. The dollar overall was unable to make headway and retreated to just below 114.00 against the yen as the yen held firm on the crosses.

There was further evidence that higher inflation rates were having a political impact with the US administration reiterating that it was looking at ways of bring energy prices down. There were also fresh doubts over fiscal policy given concerns that higher spending levels would reinforce inflation pressures.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari admitted that inflation is causing pain now, but remained confident that the pressures are transitory.

Chinese industrial production increased 3.5% in the year to October, slightly above expectations of 3.0%, and there was also a recovery in retail sales with a 4.9% increase from 4.4% previously and above expectations of 3.8%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda maintained a dovish stance with comments that the bank will maintain an easy monetary policy even if inflation hits 1.0% next year and that the weak yen is not causing problems at this stage. The dollar struggled to gain traction and settled around 113.90 against the yen with the Euro just above 130.50.

 

GBP

 

There was a slightly more optimistic tone surrounding Brexit following the latest round of talks with EU Commission Vice-president Sefcovic stating that there had been a welcome change of tone from the UK side and that a deal was possible, although he also warned that serious headway was still needed this week.

Overall risk conditions held steady which curbed potential selling on Sterling and there was an element of profit-taking on short positions, especially given the potential for the Bank of England to increase interest rates at the December policy meeting.

Sterling edged above 1.3400 against the dollar while the Euro retreated to near 0.8530. The UK currency held firm on Monday with a further limited advance to 1.3440 against the dollar. Comments from Bank of England officials will be watched closely with Governor Bailey and other MPC members due to testify to the Treasury Select Committee on Monday.  Although Tuesday’s labour-market data will be somewhat dated, it will still be important for expectations surrounding central bank action.

 

CHF

 

The Swiss franc was little changed on Friday as it recovered from initial selling with underlying sentiment holding firm as markets monitored global inflation developments. The Euro settled just below 1.0550 while the dollar posted a gain to near 0.9240 before a retreat to near 0.9200 as global trends remained dominant.

Markets will remain on alert over potential National Bank intervention to weaken the franc and the latest data on sight deposits will be monitored on Monday. Overall, the franc held firm on Monday as inflation fears elsewhere provide net support and the dollar was testing support just below the 0.9200 level.

 

Technical Levels

Contents

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