1. Reports
  2. Daily FX Report
Non-independent Research

Daily FX Report

Read disclaimer



The German IFO business confidence index strengthened to 95.7 for January from 94.8 the previous month confounding expectations of a slight reduction on the month. There was a significant retreat in the current conditions component which was offset by a notable improvement in the expectations component.

The IFO stated that the New Year started with a glimmer of hope, but it was too early to talk about a turnaround in the economic situation. The IFO did note that there was a slight easing of supply shortages in the industrial sector and delivery bottlenecks in retail had also eased.

ECB chief economist Lane stated that it was clear that the Omicron impact on the economy is only for a few weeks. He was still confident that inflation will fall quite a bit later this year. The Euro was unable to draw support from the IFO data and lost ground amid expectations of negative yield spreads and unease surrounding Ukraine.

The US Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index dipped sharply to -16.2 for January from 27.3 the previous month with a sharp slowdown in new orders growth. The sharp dip in likely to be related to the Omicron variant and companies remained optimistic over the six-month outlook. The labour market remained tight and pricing pressures increased on the month with a strong increase in the prices paid index.

The Case Shiller house-price index recorded an 18.3% increase in the year to November from 18.4% the previous month.

The Euro was unable to regain significant ground and traded around 1.1275 at the European close before a recovery to around 1.1300 as commodity currencies rallied and the dollar failed to sustain gains. Markets also remained wary over potentially substantial position adjustment later this week with potential dollar buying.

Volatility eased on Wednesday with caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision. Markets expect the Fed will signal a rate hike for March with the rhetoric watched very closely. The dollar was little changed in early Europe with the Euro fractionally close to 1.1300 amid expectations of a hawkish Fed stance.




Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda stated that monetary policy must remain accommodative as the inflation target remains distant with comments having little yen impact.

US consumer confidence retreated to 113.8 from a revised 115.2 previously, although it was above consensus forecasts.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index retreated to 8 from 16 previously as the growth in new orders slowed, but there was a further increase in pricing pressures.

There was choppy trading in Treasuries, although overall yields were little changed on the day. There was further choppy trading on Wall Street with sharp swings in the main indices. The yen held a firm underlying tone amid a generally risk-averse tone with the dollar held below 114.00 against the Japanese currency.

Asian equities were mixed on Wednesday with a more measured tone in equity markets ahead of the Federal Reserve statement later in the day.

The dollar settled just below 114.00 against the yen with the Euro around 128.75, but volatility is liable to spike higher later in the day.




The CBI industrial orders index was unchanged at 24 for January and slightly above market expectations. Companies reported that shortages of skilled labour were hampering production plans with the situation at the most serious since 1973. Cost pressures remained very strong with the strongest increase in domestic prices since 1980 and companies expect further strong increases over the next few months, reinforcing inflation concerns within the Bank of England.  

Markets were continuing to monitor political developments as the police announced that there would be an investigation into allegations surrounding social events at Downing Street. Nevertheless, overall risk conditions continued to dominate market trading.

Sterling found support below 1.3450 against the dollar and rallied to just above 1.3500 as equities recovered ground while the Euro retreated to 0.8365.

Political speculation will be elevated on Wednesday, but overall risk conditions are likely to have a larger impact and Sterling was just above 1.3500 in early Europe.




The franc lost ground on Tuesday despite fragile risk conditions and underlying concerns over the situation in Ukraine. There were further expectations of global monetary tightening this year which would potentially undermine the Swiss currency and there were still reservations over potential National Bank intervention.

The Euro secured a limited net gain to 1.0365 with the dollar testing the 0.9200 area before drifting lower.

The franc was little changed on Wednesday with the dollar trading around 0.9175 ahead of the Federal Reserve policy statement.


Technical Levels 

Calendar Levels 



This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign-up to get the latest Non-independent research

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might also be interested in...

Daily Report Base Metals

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Daily Report Softs Technical Charts

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

Weekly Report FX Options

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week’s focus is on EURPLN and the currency trajectory following the deteriorating economic outlook in Europe and rising rates in Poland.

FX Monthly Report May 2022

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look at the current inflation outlook across LATAM, Europe, U.S. and U.K. and gauge if central banks will slow their rate hikes. Economic data is weakening and China's poor growth and woeful demand could impact policy makers' decisions. 

Quarterly Metals Report – Q1 2022

Our analysts provide in-depth analysis into the current macroeconomic conditions and how near-term choppiness may subside in the coming months, once the Fed has confirmed its stance on Monetary Policy. The backwardated spreads in the metals market outline the tightness, and the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could compound tightness in Europe due to lower energy, metals, and grain exports.