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Our final balance for the 2019/20 season showed a 5.5m bag deficit, the 0.5m bag increase is due to a reduction in our Honduras number. For the 2020/21 season, we have a provisional surplus of 2.9m bags. We know there are 1.5m bags of Honduran coffee in certified stock in Antwerp which will not fill the void left of the reduction in the Honduran production over the next 3 years. Our global consumption figure forecast for the 20/21 season has increased to 166.5m bags. In previous years, we have seen our consumption figure relatively conservative to other forecasts. This remains the case for the 20/21, but year-on-year demand growth estimates have moderated. Consumption growth from 19/20 to 20/21 is 1.45%. We see steady demand growth in the U.S. and continued improvement to consumption in S.E.Asia.

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