NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 10.30. This level held firm and we closed at 10.50. The indicators are starting to weaken, as the MACD diff converges in positive territory and the stochastics are about to post a sell signal. To confirm the inverse hammer, the market needs to take out support 10.30 and then 10. To reaffirm the trend on the downside, prices need to take out the recent low. On the upside, support at 10.30 could set the scene for futures to take out resistance at 11 before targeting 11.50. The reaffirmation of resistance at 11.50 would keep the recent downward trend intact.
London 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures failed into resistance at 335 on Thursday, causing a close at 331.10. The stochastics have given a sell signal which hasn’t been confirmed yet. To confirm the rejection of the 50% fib level, the sell signal from the stochastics, the MACD diff converging in positive territory futures need to break below the 40 DMA and then 320. A close below 320 would improve downside impetus. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support at the 40 DMA could set the scene for higher prices through the 50% fib level 344.95. A break here would regain upside momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure prompted a test of 113. The market closed at 111.65. The stochastics are increasing suggesting higher prices. The MACD diff lacks conviction despite the improvement in prices. Thursday’s activity suggests that dips are being bought, we anticipate prices to test the moving averages today. A breach of this level would bring into play the recent firm resistance at 121.50. Futures need to take out-trend resistance in order to confirm the trend. On the downside, rejection of prices at the 100 DMA could trigger losses through 110 and 108.55. We expect prices to be well supported below 108.55.
London 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures edged lower on Friday but prices were supported at 1173 and then closed at 1186. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory and the MACD diff is converging on the upside. The rejection of the 40 DMA has been a trend recently and to confirm these prices need to break below 1150. Secondary support stands at 1116.20 and futures need to take out this level in order to reaffirm the downtrend. On the upside, futures need to hold above 1173 and then take out 1207 to regain upside conviction.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures were well supported on Friday and closed at 2400. The stochastics are rising, the MACD diff is positive and is starting to improve. Prices have failed above 2400 in recent weeks triggering a test of support at 2320. The downside tails suggest an appetite for prices on the downside and we expect futures to remain on the upside. The medium-term target is the 200 DMA at 2487. On the downside, rejection of prices at 2400 could trigger losses back through trend support at 2320, superseding this level is 2200.
London 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures gained ground on Thursday, causing a test of resistance at 1948, the market closed at 1936. The indicators are positive but are starting to lose momentum. The MACD diff is starting to converge and if futures fail into 1948 once again this would reaffirm the double top. To confirm the pattern, prices need to take out the 100 DMA and then 1839. The lower trend channel could is a medium-term target on the downside. On the upside, futures need to take out 1948 and then prices could target 2000.