NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY futures have held above support at 10.30, but prices failed at 10.75. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff is also converging on the upside. The sell signal on the stochastics is yet to be confirmed and the rejection of the 10 DMA yesterday could set the scene for another challenge of 10.30. A breach here and 10 would help confirm the sell signal and descending triangle. On the upside, futures need to regain a footing above 11 and then challenge 11.50. A break above this level would confirm the outlook of higher prices in the long run. However, if this level holds firm momentum will remain on the downside.
London 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London futures failed once again into 335.07 and 61.8% fib level causing a close at 333.60. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff is converging on the upside, suggesting lower prices. The rejection of higher prices could trigger losses to 322. The more robust level of 320 needs to be taken out in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices and the double top with 300 the long term target on the downside. On the upside, prices need to take out the 50% fib level to keep the inverse head and shoulder intact. To confirm the pattern, prices need to challenge the 200 DMA.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures improved yesterday but once again failed into the 61.8% fib level. The market closed at 106.70. The stochastics are falling, the MACD diff is negative and weakening. The RSI is rising and to confirm the outlook of higher prices and reaffirmation of trend support, futures need to take out 110 and then 114.75. The symmetrical triangle is still intact and if futures take out-trend resistance this could trigger a breakout to 135. On the downside, a break below the trend support could trigger losses through 100 in the medium term. The market has been well-bid trend support in recent months and anticipates this to remain the case.
London 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures gained ground yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 1168. The stochastics have given a sell signal and the MACD diff is now negative on the downside. The reaffirmation of support at the 50% fib level could set the scene for higher prices towards 1200. This level has held firm in recent weeks but the market has failed at this level in recent months, keeping the trend intact. A breach of the upper trend channel could trigger a breakout to 1625. On the downside, lack of appetite for prices above the 138.2% set the scene for lower prices to the 50%fib level and then target 1116 in the medium term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off yesterday as lack of appetite for prices above 2400. The close below 2400 could trigger losses back to trend support in the near term. The stochastics are falling and this could improve downside impetus, the MACD diff is starting to weaken and a negative cross would compound downside momentum. A break of trend support may pave the way for lower prices to 2200. On the upside, if prices can take out the 200 DMA this would confirm the trend, with the psychological level at 2600. A break of the 200 DMA and if prices can hold above this level would confirm the ascending triangle.
London 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading saw prices well bid below 1825. The market closed at 1849. The stochastics are falling, the MACD diff is negative and diverging on the downside. To confirm yesterday’s candle, prices need to take out immediate resistance at 1866 and then 1927. On the downside, rejection of prices at 1866 futures could trigger a test of the lower trend channel. The market has been well bid below 1800 in recent months.
