NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures gained ground yesterday as futures were well supported at 11.50 to recover and close at 11.80. The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff is also rising to suggest higher prices in the near term. The ADX and DMI is rising as well and yesterday’s hammer and the three white soldiers need to be confirmed. We anticipate prices to test 12 in the near term with the 100 DMA at 12.12, a subsequent breach of the 100 DMA could trigger gains through to 12.50. Apprehension amongst traders as prices approach 12 could trigger losses to 11.30. The market would need to take out this level in order to regain downside conviction towards 10.62 in the medium term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures firmed yesterday as protracted buying pressure caused a break robust resistance at the 100 DMA to close at 364. The indicators remain on the upside as the stochastics are overbought but the MACD diff is diverging in positive territory suggesting higher prices. The gap is yet to be filled but a break above the 23.6% fib level could set the scene for higher prices to 380. Recent full candles on the upside affirm sentiment and we expect prices to continue higher today. However, lack of appetite above the 23.6% fib level could set the scene for a correction on the downside to 354.83.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower yesterday as futures were well supported below 98. The market closed at 99.70. The stochastics are starting to improve but remain in oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative but fails to diverge further on the downside. The downside tail suggests an appetite for higher prices to near term trend resistance. Secondary support stands at 108.55, this level has held firm in recent weeks but futures need to take out this level in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. Lack of appetite for prices above 100 has kept momentum on the downside and we could see a repeat of this in the near term. Lack of appetite above 100 would keep the descending triangle intact and may trigger losses through 95.80.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures have softened in the last few sessions, however, prices closed at 1210 above the 123.6% fib level. The indicators lack conviction but if futures break back below the 123.6% fib level, secondary support stands at 1173. The more psychological level is 1150 and if prices break below this level in the medium term this would regain downside conviction. On the upside, if futures hold above the 123.6% fib level the bulls may target the 100 DMA at 1243. This level has held firm repeatedly and if the market holds above the 100 DMA this would improve the outlook in the longer run.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures failed above resistance at 2400 yesterday triggering a close at 2377. The stochastics lack conviction as does the MACD diff and DMI. The upside tails suggest lack of appetite for prices above 2400 and after the double top at the 200 DMA, a retracement back through 2300 to confirm the pattern. Support at previous trend resistance has held firm recently and the reaffirmation of support at this level could set the scene for higher prices to the 200 DMA. This level needs to be taken out in order to reaffirm upside momentum in the long run and the break out of the symmetrical triangle.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures failed above the lower trend channel trend line and closed at 1787. The indicators favour the downside as the stochastics fall and the MACD diff is negative suggesting lower prices. The reaffirmation of resistance yesterday and the rejection of higher prices suggests we could see futures soften in the near term towards 1750, helping to confirm the bearish engulfing candle and the inverted hammer candle. On the upside, prices need to hold above the lower trend channel trend line and then target the 40 DMA in the near term.