NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY futures held their nerve on Friday after support and resistance were tested. The market managed to close above the 100 DMA and 12, at 12.04. The stochastics are starting to soften suggesting lower prices in the near term. The MACD diff is also converging in positive territory, the softening indicators suggest we could see lower prices in the near term. The long-legged doji suggests indecision in the market but the close back above support at 12.04 and 12 keeps momentum on the upside for the time being but prices need to close back above 12.40 in order to regain upside traction. On the downside, selling pressure is increasing and a close below the 10 DMA would improve downside impetus. Trend support is the secondary level at 11.50 and a break here would set the scene for lower prices to 11.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn futures consolidated on Friday after failing to take root above 373. The market closed at 368. The indicators are starting to weaken suggesting lower prices in the term. The stochastics are falling and have given a sell signal, the MACD diff is converging and to confirm downside sentiment, futures need to close below the 100 DMA and then the 38.2% fib level at 354.83. The rejection of higher prices on Friday could trigger losses in the near term. On the upside, appetite for prices below the 23.6% could trigger gains back towards 380. In the longer run, futures need to break above 386.80 to help confirm the trend on the upside. In the immediate term, we expect futures we weaken towards trend support but if this level holds firm, the case for higher prices, in the long run, would improve.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY futures buckled on Friday as prices failed into 99.50 causing a close at 97. The indicators are on the back foot as the stochastics are falling, the ADX is rising to outline the trend. The MACD diff lacks conviction as the RSI is also negative, to confirm the outlook of lower prices, we need to see a break of support at 95.80. Secondary support stands at 93 before the psychological level at 90. Support at 95 has held firm in recent weeks and this could trigger gains towards 100 in, however, futures have failed above this level in recent weeks, keeping the descending triangle intact. To regain upside traction and indicate a rejection of the descending triangle, prices need to break above 100 and then target 105.80. The repeated failure into 100 suggests we could see futures weaken in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn futures edged lower on Friday as intraday trading saw prices fail into 1250 before breaking back below support of the 100 and 10 DMAs. The market closed at 1212. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff is converging on the downside suggesting lower prices, a break of support at the 40 DMA and trend support could trigger losses to 1150 in the medium term. The trend in the near term is on the upside as dips have been well supported suggesting higher prices in the medium term. The rejection of higher prices and an inverted hammer on Friday improved downside impetus. Conversely, if prices hold above trend support, futures could break towards the 100 DMA but we saw strong resistance for prices above this level last week. Friday’s candle and the weakening indicators suggest lower prices.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY futures took back some of the previous day’s losses on Friday to but failed into previous trend resistance and closed at 2319. The stochastics are falling towards oversold and the MACD diff lacks conviction, this could prompt the market to weaken in the near term towards 2250, the more robust level stands at 2200. On the upside, appetite for prices below 2300 have kept prices supported but futures need to regain a footing above the 40 DMA at 2374 in order to improve the outlook on the upside. In the longer run, the 100 DMA is a key level that needs to be breached to suggest a change in trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures were bid below 1730 on Friday but failed into 1750 causing a close at 1745. The MACD diff is negative but is not diverging, the ADX is rising and the stochastics are falling suggesting we could see lower prices. The near term trend is firmly on the downside and the close below 1750 on Friday failed to improve the outlook the upside. We expect a continuation of the trend, a break below 1700 would confirm protracted selling pressure and a rejection of the triple bottom. On the upside, futures need to hold above resistance at 1750.