NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday as lack of appetite for prices, prompted a test of support at 12.35 and the market closed at 12.48. We expect prices to weaken in the near term as the indicators suggest waning buying pressure, the stochastics are falling out of oversold and the MACD diff is negative and starting to diverge. Activity is holding above key support, and prices need to take out this level in order to suggest lower prices to 11.54 and the 100 DMA. On the upside, if support at 12.35 holds firm prices could push back towards resistance at 13 in the medium term. A break above this level would confirm the outlook of higher prices in the near term to 13.50 and keep the trend intact.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures sold off on Friday as selling pressure prompted a break of support at the 100 DMA and close on the back foot at 343.20. The indicators are falling as the stochastics move towards oversold and the MACD diff is negative suggesting lower prices. A break of support at 340 could trigger losses back towards 334.80. The robust level on the downside in the medium term is 320. Conversely, futures need to push back above the 100 DMA and then 360 in order to regain upside momentum in the medium term. The market favours the downside and we expect this to continue in the near term, with a close below 340 compounding downside momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures buckled on Friday as selling pressure triggered a close at 97.40. The indicators are falling, the MACD diff is negative and diverging suggesting lower prices. If selling pressure continues into today, we could see prices break support around 95, the market has been well supported below this level. A close below this level could trigger losses to 93. On the upside, futures need to close above 100 and then the 100 DMA in order to regain upside conviction. We expect futures to remain in the 95-100 range in the immediate term but the reaffirmation of support around 95 could trigger gains on the upside towards 106.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve on Friday after prices failed into support and resistance. The market closed at 1197. The stochastics are rising, the MACD diff is negative but lacks conviction. The repeated failure of prices to break above 1200 could suggest a move to the downside, the stochastics while positive look to be topping out and the upside tails suggest lower prices in the near term. A break of support at 1173 could set the scene for lower prices to 1150 which remains the robust level on the downside. On the upside, the 100 DMA has closed in and this will provide resistance in the near term. Futures need to break above this level in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 1250.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite at the 10 DMA and then close at 2160. The stochastics are starting to improve and the MACD diff converging on the downside. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 2200 and then target 2298. The 40 DMA is closing in and this is expected to provide resistance in the near term. On the downside, momentum, in the long run, is on the downside and if prices fail above 2160 this could trigger losses towards 2100 in the medium term. The market may be due to a correction on the upside but we expect this rally to be sold.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused prices to close at 1560. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff is also negative but is converging suggesting an improving outlook on the upside. The rejection of previous trend resistance has dampened the outlook on the upside, in order to suggest higher prices in the near term, futures need to close above 1600 and then 1640. On the downside, rejection of prices towards 1600 could trigger losses back through 1560. A close below this level may trigger losses towards 1500 in the near term