NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures were well supported on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 13.20. The stochastics are rising, and the RSI is also improving, to confirm the rising indicators and bullish MACD diff which is diverging in positive territory, prices need to challenge 13.81. A break of this level in the medium would confirm the reaffirmation of trend support last week and would confirm the ascending triangle. The DMI is rising and this affirms the recent trend from April. Conversely, rejection of prices above 13.20 could trigger a retracement back to trend support or the 40 DMA at 12.34, a break of 12 in the medium term may set the scene for lower prices to 11.35. Friday’s buying pressure suggests higher prices, confirming the bullish engulfing candle.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures gained ground on Friday, protracted buying pressure closed at 377. The stochastics are rising further into overbought territory, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging. The DMI is positive and the recent buying pressure suggests higher prices, the market rejected 380 in June and if apprehension in the market remains the case, we could see prices retreat back towards the 50% fib level at 367.50. A breakthrough this level would pave the way for prices to test previous trend support at 351.57, reaffirmation of support at this level could improve the outlook on the upside in the longer term. The key level on the downside, in the long run, is 334.80, a breach here would indicate a change in trend to the downside. On the upside, Friday’s full candle and the indicators suggest higher prices in the near term but prices need to take out the 61.8% fib level at 383.43. We could see prices consolidate today, and an inside day would indicate higher prices.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures have gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close above 38.2% fib level at 121.60. The stochastics are positive but starting to converge suggesting waning buying pressure, however price action is strong. The MACD diff is positive and diverging outlining the recent buying pressure. Futures have failed at 121.50 in recent months and this could trigger losses back towards 115, reaffirmation of support at the 50% fib level could trigger gains in the long run towards 125. A breach of 115 in the medium term would confirm the outlook of lower prices to 111.43. Conversely, on the upside, a breach of resistance could trigger gains to 125. Buying pressure has been strong recently and we expect the trend to remain intact.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures posted an inside day on Friday after traders rejected higher prices and we closed at 1361. The upside tails suggest lack of appetite for higher prices and this has been outlined by the weakening indicators. The stochastics have converged and started to fall as the MACD diff is converging in positive territory, we expect this to transpire into a break of support at 1331 before targeting 1300 in the medium term. Prices have been supported at this level in recent weeks but the indicators and upside tails suggest a correction. On the upside, prices need to hold above this 1350 and then 1370 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to weaken in the near term towards 1300.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa gained ground on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to challenge resistance at 2400, the market closed at 2399. The stochastics are in positive territory but have converged suggesting waning buying pressure. The MACD diff is positive and diverging which contra to the stochastics suggest a continuation of the recent trend. On the upside, prices need to take out previous trend support at 2430 before the 200 DMA at 2468. This level has been rejected repeatedly in recent months and a break of the 200 would help confirm a change in trend toward 2600. On the downside, lack of appetite above 2400 would confirm the outlook of lower prices to previous trend resistance. Reaffirmation of support at this level confirms the outlook of higher prices through the 200 DMA in the long run.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa gained on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2145.61. The stochastics are rising, as the MACD diff is also positive and diverging suggesting higher prices in the near term towards 2200. A break of the 100 DMA at 2180 could trigger gains in the long run towards 2300, this would help confirm the recent uptrend and indicators. However, a rejection of the 100 DMA would trigger losses back to the 40 DMA. The indicators have made a new high but price action remains below the previous spike and to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to make a new high. The indicators are bullish but prices need to confirm the outlook in the near term.
