NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures were well supported yesterday as buying pressure at 13.30 prompted at close at 13.32. The stochastics are falling but remain in overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and converges suggesting we could see buying pressure start to wane. The reaffirmation of support at 13 and trend support could trigger gains through 13.50 with 13.80 still the key resistance level on the upside. A break of 13.80 will prompt confirmation of the ascending triangle. On the downside, the indicators are falling suggesting some weakness, this could trigger a breakthrough 13 and trend support. A break of trend support could prompt a test of the 40 DMA at 12.54.
LDN 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures found support at the 50% fib level at 367.50, this prompted a close at 373.70. The stochastics are falling but remain overbought, the MACD diff is converging on the upside and this also suggests waning buying pressure. Yesterday's dragonfly doji suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 380. A break of this level would confirm rejection of the double top and inverted head and shoulders and may trigger gains through 61.8%. A break of the 50% fib level could trigger losses through 357.50 and target the recent low at 334.80. The reaffirmation of support at 367.50 could trigger a test of resistance at 380.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures softened yesterday, prices tested 112.15 and the market recovered slightly to close at 113.60. The stochastics have fallen sharply and the gap between them helps to confirm the downside momentum. The MACD diff has converged and now cross to become negative and we could see lower prices towards 110, with the 100 DMA at 108.37. We expect to see prices continue to soften in the near term, but if support holds at previous trend resistance would help confirm the outlook of higher prices in the long term, however, the market has repeatedly failed at 130 in recent months. If can gain a footing back above 115, this would improve upside momentum, however, we expect prices to weaken in the near term.
LDN 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures softened yesterday after prices failed above the 10 DMA at 1358 and 1350 in order to close at 1337. The stochastics are falling towards oversold, and the gap between the %K and %D suggest selling pressure will continue. The MACD diff is negative and starting to diverge suggesting lower prices towards 1300. The 40 DMA is rising and we expect this to provide support in the medium term. Futures have been well supported below 1330 and this may prompt a test of resistance at 76.4%. The reaffirmation of support has maintained upside momentum despite weakening indicators and this could trigger prices another leg higher.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY futures broke through support at the 200 DMA and tested support at the 10 DMA at 2441, prices were well supported at this level and we closed at 2448. The stochastics are starting to top out and but remain in overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and diverges suggesting lower prices but the downside tail does indicate some buying pressure below previous trend support. A continuation of selling pressure towards 2400 could trigger losses to 2300. Reaffirmation of support at 2400 would help the trend in the long run back through the 200 DMA to the recent high at 2520. The recent rally has been strong but we expect a correction to the downside to 2400.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn futures weakened yesterday as selling pressure prompted a test of support at the 100 DMA. The market closed at 2206.97. The indicators are starting to weaken and this could trigger losses in the immediate term. The MACD diff is positive but converging and we could see prices break through support at the 100 DMA towards, the previous trend support before targeting 2100. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support at the 100 DMA could trigger move back above 2200 today. A close towards yesterday's higher could trigger an improvement in sentiment to 2300 in the medium term.
