NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY futures rejected resistance at 14 yesterday, and closed at 13.89 and posted an inside day. The stochastics are rising and are overbought but the MACD diff is also positive but has started to converge suggesting lower prices in the near term back to the 76% fib level. A break below 13.79 could trigger losses back to 13.27 and where the 40 DMA stands. The 100 DMA is rising and we expect this to provide support in the near term. There is a band of support between the 100 DMA and the 40 DMA and we expect the market to be supported at this level in the medium term. Conversely, if prices can gain a footing above 14 would trigger gains towards 14.50. A break of this level would confirm the ascending triangle.
LDN 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn futures buckled yesterday as intrday trading saw prices fail into 403.14 and the market closed a 397.10. The stochastics are overbought and this may prompt futures to retreat in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and has converged suggesting weakness in the market. To confirm the rejection of the 76% fib level, prices could soften back to the 10 DMA at 390.06. The more robust level on the downside is the 61.8% fib level at 383.43 before the 40 DMA at 371.57. Futures need to break above the 76% fib level and then target 415. Momentum on the upside has started to wane and we expect to see a correction on the downside in the next few sessions towards near term trend support.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures declined yesterday after traders rejected 110 and broke through support at 108.55, prompting a test of appetite below 107. The market closed at 107.80. The stochastics are falling towards oversold and the MACD diff positive and converging and is set to become negative. The market has been well supported below 108.55 in recent weeks and appetite for prices here could trigger gains towards 112, in order to regain upside conviction the market needs to break above 115 and then target the 40 DMA at 117.80. On the downside, a break below 107 would set the scene for lower prices to the more robust level at 105, this would confirm the descending triangle.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures failed into resistance yesterday and this prompted a break lower and close at 1289. The stochastics are rising and have converged suggesting higher prices in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, improving the outlook on the upside. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices need to close above near term trend resistance, secondary resistance stands at 1337. The 40 DMA looks set to close in on prices in the medium term but we do not expect futures to test this level in the near term. On the downside, to confirm the rejection of trend resistance, prices need to break below 1250.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2382. The stochastics are rising out of oversold territory and the MACD diff is negative but has converged suggesting higher prices in the near term. A break of resistance at the 200 DMA at 2458 could trigger gains to the 40 DMA at 2521. Futures need to break these levels to regian upside conviction, resistance at 2694 is the key in the long run. On the downside, lack of appetite of prices above 2400 would set the scene for lower prices towards 2290 before 2200. The rebound of support at 2355 has injected some positivity but prices remain below key resistance and are struggling abvoe 2400. This could prompt a correction to the downside in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa prices softened yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2137. The stochastics are rising out of oversold territory and the MACD diff has converged in negative territory and looks set to cross on the upside, however activity remains below resistance at the 100 DMA. A break above this level could trigger gains towards 2270 in the medium term but even though prices have edged higher, the intraday trading has come from the sell side. We expect resistance at the 100 DMA to hold firm, and this could trigger losses through 2100 towards 2000 in the medium term.
