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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures softened yesterday, but prices failed below 18.64 once again, prompting a close at 18.63. The stochastics are oversold, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside, and the MACD diff is also diverging on the downside, outlining the weakness in the market. The dips have been well bid, and to confirm another downward candle, the futures need to break below the 18.64 level before targeting 18.31 and 18.00, respectively. Alternatively, if prices can gain a footing back above 100 DMA at 18.94, the bulls could then target 19.10 in order to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures weakened yesterday, however, investors rejected prices below 493.90, prompting a close at 493.50. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D, however, is oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 493.90 before the 490 level. Tertiary support stands at 100 DMA 483.49, a break below would confirm the outlook on the downside. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 500 and then 10 and 40 DMA at 505 in the near term. The 10 DMA is above to break below the 40 DMA, which could highlight further selling pressures, but futures need to break below the near term support first.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures edged lower yesterday, causing the market to close at 206.15. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside, but the MACD diff just converged on the downside, a clear sell signal. To confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 10 DMA at 208.34, the level prices struggled to break above in the last couple of sessions and then target 209.65. On the downside, a break below 200 could set the scene for trend support at 197 and then a 23.6% fib level at 191.22. The narrow candle body with long upper and lower wicks points to market uncertainty about the direction of the move, and the futures need to break out of current resistance/support to confirm the near-term outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened yesterday after futures broke above the resistance of 2127, triggering a close at 2135. The stochastics are rising, the %K/%D diverging on the upside. The MACD is negative and converging, suggesting we could see higher prices in the near term. Prices tested 2149; however, a close below and a doji candle formation support market indecisiveness above that level. On the upside, a break above 2173 could see the test of 2200 level. Conversely, a break below the 2127 support line could set the scene for a test of 40 DMA at 2104. We expect prices to consolidate recent gains today and remain on the front foot.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure prompted a test and closed at 2601. The stochastics are trading in the oversold and are about to converge in the near term; the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting waning bearish momentum in the near term. Prices have been supported above the 2560 level for the last couple of sessions, and if this level proves robust, we could see prices edge higher in the near term towards 40 and 10 DMA at 2655. On the downside, a break below 50% fib level at 2534 could break the trend and set prices down to 100 DMA at 2501. Prices need to break above the 2600 level to confirm the bullish momentum.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading caused the market to close at 1772. The stochastics are seen converging in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, highlighting recent downside movement. To confirm the bearish indicators, futures need to break below the support at 76.4% fib level at 1753 before targeting 100 DMA at 1725. A break below this level would confirm the trend on the downside. On the upside, to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 1800 and then target 1810 once again. A narrow-bodied candle after a strong bearish one points to market uncertainty below 1753, and if the support does not hold, we could see prices edge lower in the near term.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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