NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY Sugar futures edged lower on Friday as lack of appetite for prices above 14 triggered a close marginally below this level at 13.99. The stochastics are on the front foot and are overbought but the MACD diff is positive but isn’t diverging suggesting unease in the market. Continued apprehension in the market following from Friday’s session could trigger further losses today, through the 76.4% fib level at 13.79. The 100 DMA is closing on the 40 DMA, and levels could provide support in the medium term. On the upside, support at the 76.4% fib level could trigger another push above 14, where prices have failed to gain a foothold. In order to confirm the upside momentum prices need to take out last week’s high at 14.17. We expect another test above 14 but the market lacks conviction and buying pressure is waning.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures posted an inside day on Friday after prices failed above 400 and closed at 398.40. The indicators are positive but are starting to wane on the upside, this could prompt a break below near term trend support with a secondary target of 380. The failure into 403 and the lack of new high from the stochastics suggests we could soften in the near term. However, to confirm the reaffirmation of trend support last week and the ascending triangle, prices need to take out 403 and then target 415. If price fail above 403 once again, we could see futures retreat back towards 380, with a break of tertiary support at 373.92.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures posted an inside day on Friday, as prices were supported below 108 once again and closed at 108.40. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff are negative and starting to diverge suggesting lower prices in the near term. The trend is on the downside and futures continue to struggle towards 110 and the repeated reaffirmation of resistance has repeatedly confirmed the trend on the downside. The rejection of 110 may trigger a break towards 105. On the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 110 to confirm the bullish engulfing candle and inside day. The more robust level is 115 where prices have failed recently. The 40 DMA is closing in and this is expected to provide resistance in the medium time. We expect prices to soften in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures consolidated on Friday after being supported at 1300, this triggered a close at 1305. The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff is positive and this could trigger gains towards 1331, helping to confirm the break of trend resistance and reaffirmation of support at the 50% fib level. A break of this level in the medium term would help suggest a change in trend through 1347 and then 1400. On the downside, lack of appetite above 1300 could trigger losses back below previous trend resistance before targeting 1250. A break of 1250 would confirm the rejection above 1300 and the down trend. We expect prices edge higher in the near term to confirm the bullish engulfing candle but if prices fail into last week’s high would suggest a move lower.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures failed into the 40 DMA on Friday but still closed above the 200 DMA, at 2479. The stochastics are rising in positive territory and the MACD diff is positive and diverging suggesting higher prices in the near term. However, the rejection of the 40 DMA and 50% fib level could trigger losses back towards 2400 in the near term, this would confirm the shooting star candle. To confirm the reaffirmation of resistance prices need to break below 2290. On the upside, buying pressure has been stronger but prices hold below resistance of the 50% fib level, in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices futures need to close above 2500 and then target 2600 in the medium term. We expect another test of 2500 today.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures consolidated on Friday as intraday trading prompted a test of support at 2200, the market closed at 2218. The stochastics are rising and the gap between them suggests higher prices and strong momentum. The MACD diff is positive but lacks conviction, we expect futures to edge higher towards the 40 DMA at 2266. A break here could trigger gains towards 2400 with the robust level at 2450. Lack of appetite around the 40DMA may trigger losses back through the 100 DMA to 2100. A break below 2100 would pave the way for losses towards previous trend resistance around 1923.