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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures surged on Friday as protracted buying pressure prompted a close back above 14 at 14.09. The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff is positive but lacks conviction despite Friday’s activity. The bullish engulfing candle could set the scene for higher prices, a break of previous trend support at 14.21 could trigger gains towards 14.50. The stochastics are near overbought and a new high would help confirm the trend and outlook for higher prices. However, prices have failed at 14.20 in recent weeks, and this could set the scene for lower prices to 13.60 and then 13.11. A break of 13.11 would help confirm the rejection of the double top at 14.20, a break here would set the scene for lower prices towards 12 at the 50% fib level. We expect prices to consolidate recent gains today and remain on the front foot.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures were well supported on Friday as protracted trading caused futures to close above the 76.4% fib level and closed at 403.4.The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff is now positive and lacks conviction, to confirm the bullish engulfing candle, prices need to gain a footing above 403 and then target 410 in the near term. Secondary resistance stands at 420, and this could trigger gains towards 435 in the long run. However, the market has rejected prices above 403 and this could trigger losses back towards 385.16 where the 40 DMA currently stands. A break below support at this level would set the scene for losses back to the 50% fib level. A break of this level would help confirm a change in trend. Apprehension amongst traders above 403 has been strong recently but momentum is on the upside and we expect prices to close above this level.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee prices gained ground on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite above 110. However, lack of appetite for prices above 110 prompted a close at 109.45. The stochastics are rising and the gap between the stochastics suggests strengthening upside momentum, the MACD diff is positive and diverges on the upside suggesting higher prices in the near term through the 100 DMA. Secondary resistance stands at the 50% fib level and a break here would confirm a change in trend and extension towards 120, this would help confirm the rejection of the descending triangle. Conversely, lack of appetite for prices above 110 could trigger losses back towards 108.55. A break of 108.55 could trigger losses back to the 104.20  at the 76.4% fib level. This level has held firm in recent weeks and we expect futures to be well supported at this level. In the near term, to confirm the three white soldiers, futures need to close above 112.50 in the near term but then target 115

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures have been well supported since testing trend support and this prompted a test of appetite for prices above 1347 on Friday but the market closed at 1350. The stochastics are rising towards overbought but the MACD diff is positive and converging suggesting waning buying pressure. Lack of appetite for prices above 1356 could trigger losses back towards trend support at 1320. A break here could trigger losses back to the 50% fib level before the more robust level at 1250. A break of 1250 would confirm the rejection of the ascending triangle. Conversely, buying pressure has triggered a test of appetite above 1256 and if futures hold above this level could trigger gains towards 1391. A break of 1391 would confirm the ascending triangle. We expect buying pressure to continue in the near term but prices need to hold above 1356.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa has been supported recently after appetite for prices below 2300, prompting a test of resistance at 2355. Friday’s close at 2338 prompted the formation of a spinning top. The stochastics are rising out of oversold and the MACD diff is negative and converging suggesting and improved outlook on the upside, if the indicator crosses into positive territory. Futures need to break above 2350 could trigger gains towards 2400. The robust level at near term trend resistance has held firm in recent weeks, a break of this level would set the scene for a test of 2500. However, near term resistance stands at previous trend support and if this level holds, prices could retreat back towards 2300. On the downside, rejection of prices above 2355 could trigger losses back towards 2300, prices need to take out the recent low at 2264 in the near term to regain downside conviction.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures consolidated on Friday after prices failed above 2140, the market closed at 2119. The stochastics are rising out of oversold and the MACD diff is improving suggesting higher prices. Futures need to break above the 100 DMA at 2170 and the 40DMA at 2208. The RSI is rising and this aids upside momentum but futures remain below key resistance. If resistance at the 100 DMA holds firm, this could trigger losses back through 2055. The secondary level at 2000 would help to confirm the outlook of lower prices to 1923. We expect prices to remain on the front foot and challenge the 100 DMA but we expect this level to hold firm in the near term.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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