NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures prices struggled into resistance at 14.17, prompting a close at 14.07. The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff lacks conviction as prices struggle to take out key resistance. The RSI is falling and Friday’s candle suggests lower prices in the near term but futures need to break below the 76.4% and the 13.68 which is the 40 DMA. The market has been well supported below the 40 DMA and this could keep the upside trend intact in the near term. Tertiary support stands at 13.19 which is the 100 DMA. On the upside, prices need to take out key resistance at 14.17 and gain a footing in the near term above this level before targeting 14.50. Buying pressure is starting to wane and we expect this to remain the case in the near term with prices softening towards support at 13.70 in the coming session.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged higher on Friday as intraday trading saw prices post a new high at 409.70, lack of appetite for prices at this level triggered a close at 406.80. The stochastics are rising in overbought territory with the MACD diff is negative and converging suggesting an improved outlook on the upside despite Friday’s activity. If prices reaffirm support at 400 could trigger prices to challenge the recent high around 410 before targeting the recent high 415 with the second level at 420. On the downside, if prices break below 400, this could trigger losses through previous trend support. In order to suggest a change in trend, futures need to break below 380 and the 100 DMA at 372.31. We expect futures remain on the front foot but the market needs to close above 410.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday as intraday trading to fail into 113.40 before closing at 112.20. The stochastics are rising towards overbought as the MACD diff is positive and diverging suggesting we could see a test of 115 in the near term. Buying pressure waned on Friday but the indicators are still positive, the bulls need to break above 115 in order to reaffirm upside conviction. On the downside, if selling pressure continues into today, this could prompt a test of 110. A break below this level would bring into play 108.55. We expect futures to push higher in the near term but prices remain below key resistance at 115, apprehension amongst traders has kept momentum on the downside in recent months.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures consolidated recent gains on Friday, after prices failed above 1415 to close at 1410. The stochastics are in overbought territory but are starting to converge suggesting waning buying pressure but the MACD diff is positive and diverging suggesting higher prices in the near term. The ADX and DMI are rising outlining positive momentum. Friday’s candle could trigger losses through 1391.68 before targeting the more robust level at 1356 in the medium term, tertiary support stands at 1323 which is the 40 DMA. The 40 DMA is starting to rise but we know this reactionary. On the upside, if futures reaffirm support around 1391 and 1400 this could trigger gains back towards Friday’s high. If prices take out this high, the market needs to hold above this level in order to confirm the recent trend. Momentum remains on the upside and this could trigger gains towards 1450.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa were well supported into 2400 but this level held firm which prompting a close of 2365. The stochastics are rising but are starting to converge suggesting we could see prices soften in the near term. The MACD diff positive and diverging suggesting buying pressure, however prices need to take out resistance at 2400 before the 200 DMA at 2426. Tertiary resistance stands at the 50% fib level. On the downside, if futures reaffirm resistance at 2400 this would help to confirm the trend in the near term and set the scene for lower prices through the recent low at 2247. The upside tail suggests lack of appetite for higher prices. We expect futures to retreat in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged higher on Friday as intraday trading prompted a test of support 2100 and closed at 2120. The stochastics are rising but have started to stall at neutral territory but the MACD diff also lacks conviction, as does the RSI. The market remains within the descending triangle, but the reaffirmation of support at 2100 could prompt a challenge of trend support at 2141. A break of this level would help to confirm the outlook of higher prices and rejection of the descending triangle. To regain upside conviction prices need to take out 2180. On the downside, a breach of support at 2100 and then the more robust level at 2049. Buying pressure is weak and we expect prices to soften in the near term to 2049.
