NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to closed at 14.13, below key support at 14.17. The stochastics are falling out of overbought, the MACD diff is positive and converging on the upside suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term. The ADX is falling but in order to confirm the weakening sentiment, futures need to take out support at 13.86 and then 13.34 to regain downside momentum. Recent sell offs have been well supported and appetite for prices at the 40DMA has kept the trend on the upside. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to take out the recent high at 14.60. Secondary resistance stands at 15, and a breach of resistance at this level in the long run could trigger futures to break higher. We anticipate futures will reaffirm support at 14, this would strengthen the trend on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures consolidated yesterday as intraday trading was very narrow. The market closed above 400 and this could trigger gains back towards 410. The stochastics are falling, the gap between them is wide and this suggests momentum on the downside is strong but price action does not resemble the drop off in the stochastics. The MACD diff is negative but lacks conviction, and the DMI and ADX also lacks conviction. In order to confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to break below the 40 DMA at 394.90, with secondary support at 383.43. A break of this 383 could set the scene for a change in trend back to 376.50. On the upside, the spinning top and previous appetite for prices below 400 could set the scene for higher prices to 410, futures need to breach this level in order to reaffirm upside momentum and trigger a challenge of 420.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower yesterday after intraday trading saw prices fail to hold onto the intraday highs and closed at 115.90. The stochastics are falling out of oversold and this could trigger further losses in the near term back to 115. The MACD diff is positive but converges which is in line with the recent price action. The upside tails and lower highs and lower lows suggests lower prices. If futures close below 115 and the 100 DMA at 114.23, this could trigger a test of support at the 40 DMA a 111.44. In order to confirm the double top at 124.15, futures need to break below 110. On the upside, upside tails suggest buying pressure is still a threat, but the market needs to close on the intraday highs and then above 120 in order to regain upside conviction. In the longer term, futures need to break above 125 in order to confirm a change in trend. The reaffirmation of support at 115 would strengthen the outlook on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a close at 1353. The stochastics are falling with the %k approaching oversold, the gap between them suggests momentum on the downside is strong and this could a sell off through the 100 DMA with the 40 DMA at 1332. The MACD diff is negative and is converging suggesting lower prices, the DMI is about to cross on the downside. The break below near term support also indicates the improved downside momentum. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need reaffirm support at the 100 DMA and then take back some of yesterday’s losses in order to regain upside momentum. To confirm the outlook of higher prices, the market needs to break above 1391.68 and hold above this level. Near term momentum favours the downside and we expect this to remain the case in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite for prices above 2800, the market closed back below 2800 at 2785. Stochastics are rising, and are overbought but continue to rise, outlining positive momentum. The MACD diff is positive and diverging suggesting further gains on the upside. The DMI and ADX positive outlines the positive trend we have seen in recent weeks. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 2800 and then target 2935 which is the 100% fib level. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 2800 could trigger losses back to 2694 before targeting 2612. Buying pressure remains strong and even though upside tails are suggesting waning buying pressure, we expect momentum to remain on the upside. The reaffirmation of support at 2694 could strengthen the outlook of higher prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa broke above key resistance yesterday as buying pressure triggered a test of resistance at 2500. The market closed at 2475. The stochastics are converging and a sell signal is on the horizon, the MACD diff is positive and diverging suggesting higher prices in the near term. The RSI is in overbought territory, and to confirm the rejection of prices at 2500, futures need to break back below 2400 toward the 10 DMA at 2316. Recent upside momentum is strong and to maintain the trend, and break through the triple top, prices need to hold above 2500 and then target 2600. Buying pressure is starting to wane shown by the upside tails, but we expect futures to remain on the front foot. Even a correction to challenge support at 2400 would mean momentum is still on the upside, and if this level holds the upside trend would be strengthened in the long run.