NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower yesterday as selling pressure prompted a test of the 40DMA at 13.87. The market closed at 13.95. The stochastics are falling, and the gap between them suggests we could see futures break below the 40 DMA to the 100 DMA. The MACD diff lacks conviction and a break below the 40 DMA and the 76.4% fib level could trigger the MACD diff to diverge on the downside, increasing downside impetus. The RSI is falling but prices fail to confirm the outlook of lower prices as support at the 40 DMA has held firm. The market has been well bid around the 40 DMA in recent months keeping momentum on the upside, and prompting new highs. The reaffirmation of support at the 40 DMA and the 76.4% fib level would strengthen the outlook of higher prices but prices need to take out the new high in order to confirm the trend and upside conviction. Conversely, selling pressure has been robust in recent sessions and a break below the 40DMA would regain downside conviction.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures consolidated yesterday as buying pressure prompted support at the 40 DMA triggering a close at 398.10. The stochastics are falling towards oversold and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, outlining the improvement in negative sentiment. In order to confirm the full candle on the downside, and the negative indicators, prices need to take out the 40 DMA today and then the brand of support between the 100 DMA and the 61.8% fib level. However, futures have been well supported at the 40 DMA recently and this could trigger gains through the 403.14 with the secondary level at 410. A breach of this level would confirm the upside trend and may prompt a challenge of 420. A close back above 400 today would regain upside conviction and pave the way for gains early next week.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures consolidated yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to reject prices above 119. The market closed at 117.15. The stochastics are falling towards neutral territory, the MACD diff is converging on the upside. The RSI has started to improve but the DMI and ADX lack conviction. Buying pressure remains a threat but futures need to hold onto the intraday highs. In order to regain upside conviction, prices need to close above 120 and then then take out resistance at 124.15, this would confirm a rejection of the double top and confirm the ascending triangle. The reaffirmation of support at 115 and near term trend support could trigger gains through 120. On the downside, the upside tails and rejection of highs could trigger losses through 115. A break below 115 would confirm the double top and shooting star candles. Secondary and tertiary support levels at the 40 DMA and 100 DMA, a breach of these levels would confirm the outlook of lower prices but in order to confirm the lower high at 124, the market needs to take out the recent low around 104.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures surged higher yesterday as protracted buying pressure prompted a break of resistance at 1400 and close at 1411. The stochastics are converging and a buy signal is on the horizon, the MACD diff is negative but after yesterday’s full candle, the indicators are improving. The reaffirmation of trend support and close back above 1400 could strengthen the outlook of higher prices back to 1450. Yesterday’s full candle has improved upside impetus, and we expect further gains in the near term. In order to regain upside momentum, futures need to take out the long term resistance level at 1479. Conversely, on the downside, lack of appetite for prices above 1400 could trigger losses back to 1350 in the medium term, a subsequent breach of near term trend support could trigger losses to the 50% fib level at 1300. We expect futures to edge higher in the near term towards 1450.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as prices partially confirmed the rejection of prices above 2800. Selling pressure prompted a challenge of support at 2694, this level held firm and the market closed at 2724. The stochastics are positive and converging suggesting waning pressure on the upside. The MACD diff is positive but starting to top out suggesting we could see futures retreat further in the near term. To confirm the rejection of 2800 and softening RSI, prices need to take out support at 2694 and then target 2600. The reaffirmation of support at 2694 which was previous resistance and triple top could set the scene for higher prices through 2800 and the recent high at 2820. The recent move has been strong and quick, and a correction to the downside would benefit the market, the long term resistance level remains at 2935 and remains an upside target for the bulls. We expect to see prices consolidate in near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure triggered a break back above 2450.30 and closed at 2483.85. The stochastics are rising and overbought but have converged suggesting we could see prices edge lower in the near term back towards 2450. MACD diff converges on the upside, which could increase downside impetus. Rejection of prices at 2800 may set the scene for lower prices but in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices, the market needs to break below 2400 and the 10 DMA at 2387. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support and a close above 2500 today would bring into play 2520. The next level is 2600 and a strong close today could pave the way for a challenge 2600 next week.