NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures failed into resistance at 14.17 on Friday, and this triggered a close at 14.02. The stochastics are falling and the MACD diff lacks conviction. The RSI is neutral and as prices hold above the 40 DMA, this could set the scene for higher prices in the coming sessions. The upside tail and inverted hammer, indicated renewed buying pressure and may suggest higher prices in the near term but futures need to close back above 14.20 in order to regain upside conviction. In the medium term, futures need to take out 14.60 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. On the downside, repeated of priced above 14.10 may set the scene for lower prices to through 13.80 towards 13.37. In order to suggest a change in trend, the market needs to take out support at 13. We expect prices to hold above the 40 DMA and re-challenge the recent high.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading saw prices reject resistance and close at 397.80. The MACD diff is negative and the stochastics are falling towards oversold, outlining negative market sentiment. A break below the supportive 40 DMA could trigger losses back towards 383.43 in the near term. The tertiary support level stands at the 100 DMA around 377. On the upside, support at the 40 DMA has held firm and this could trigger gains back through 403 before targeting 410. We expect futures to push back above 400 but a wary of another failure into 403, as this would strengthen the outlook on the downside.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures surged higher on Friday as protracted buying pressure caused a challenge of 125, the market closed at 124.20. The MACD diff is positive and diverging which suggests higher prices, the stochastics are also rising. We could see futures break above 125, and a close above this level would confirm the reaffirmation of near term trend support and a rejection of the double top at 124.15. Secondary resistance stands at 130 which is a key psychological level for traders. However, prices have failed above 124 in recent weeks, triggering a break below 115 and then challenge of 110. The key level would 115 in the medium term and a breach of this level would prompt further losses to 110. The reaffirmation of support last week at 115 and bullish candle on Friday suggests we could see higher prices today.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures consolidated on Friday as intraday trading saw prices test support and resistance. The market closed at 1413. The stochastics are rising and the MACD diff is negative, suggesting market uncertainty. The long legged doji, affirms the uncertainty in the market, but prices remain above support at 1400. This could trigger gains toward 1450 in the medium term which would help to confirm the bullish candle on Thursday last week. A break through 1450 would confirm the trend on the upside and the reaffirmation of near term trend support last week, the longer term target level is 1479. On the downside, lack of appetite for prices above 1400 could trigger some of last weeks gains to be take back, prompting a challenge of near term trend support at 1365. The band of support at 1340 will set the scene for lower prices to 1300.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures closed unchanged on Friday after selling pressure caused a test of support at 2694, this level held firm and the market recovered. The MACD diff is positive but is starting to converge which reflects the selling pressure we have seen in the last few sessions. The recovery on Friday suggests appetite for prices around 2496 and this could trigger another test of resistance at 2800 today, the bulls need to close above this level then take out last week’s high tomorrow in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. The reaffirmation of support could strengthen the outlook on the upside. On the downside, the bears need to break below 2694 and then 2600 in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices. This would regain downside momentum and could trigger losses back to the 50% fib level at 2513. Momentum remains on the front foot and we could see further consolidation today.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused the market to test support at 2450. The market recovered well and closed at 2488. The indicators overbought and topping out as the MACD diff is positive but starting to converge. Futures are below key resistance at 2500, failure into this level could trigger losses back to 2400, a subsequent break of this level would set the scene for lower prices to 2300. On the upside, support for prices at 2450 has kept the market on the front foot, if futures break above resistance at 2500, the market could trigger gains to 2600 in the medium term. Upside pressure is waning and this could trigger losses in the near term but prices need to break below 2400 to improve downside conviction.