NY Sugar 2nd Month Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading prompted prices to close at 13.96. The market rejected prices above 14 and the market closed above the 40 DMA. The stochastics are falling towards oversold, as the MACD diff is negative and has diverged in recent sessions, suggesting improving downside pressure. Repeated rejection of prices above 14 has increased downside impetus, however prices hold above key support. Futures need to break below this level in order to confirm the rejection of 14.10. To suggest a change in trend, prices need to breach 13. On the upside, reaffirmation of support at 13.79 could strengthen the outlook of higher prices in the near term but the market needs to take out 14.17 to regain upside conviction. We anticipate prices to edge higher in the near term, as dips remain bought but prices need to hold above 14.17.
Ldn Sugar 2nd Month Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday after prices failed at the 40 DMA and closed at 393.80. The stochastics are falling with the %K stochastic falling into oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and diverges on the downside. The rejection of prices at the 40 DMA could trigger losses back towards 383.43 before prices test the 100 DMA at 378.25. A break of the 100 DMA would confirm a change in trend to the downside. On the upside, in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to break above the 40 DMA at 397.15. To regain upside conviction, prices need to hold above 403 and then target 410. Buying pressure has started to improve but futures remain below key resistance and upside momentum has not been confirmed.
NY Coffee 2nd Month Futures
NY coffee futures sold off sharply yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a break of support at 121.50 and 119.83. The market closed at 118.45, above near term trend support. The stochasticsa are falling, and the MACD diff positive but is starting to converge suggesting waning pressure on the uspide. However, if trend support stands firm this could trigger gains back towards 124.15 but in order to confirm the ascending triangle, futures need to take out 124.15 and 125 in order to help confirm the pattern. The tertiary level is the 23.6% fib level at 129.50. On the downside, selling pressure has been strong and a break below near term trend support may set the scene for a challenge of 115. This support level is key, 115 held firm last week and repeated appetite of this level could strengthen the outlook of higher prices in the long run. Conversly, a breach of 115 would help confirm the bearish candle yesterday and triple top at 124.15.
Ldn Coffee 2nd Month Futures
Ldn coffee futures buckled yesterday as futures closed at 1388, below support at the 76.4% fib level. The stochastics are neutral, as is the MACD diff is negative and starting to diverge. The DMI is falling but is positive and this suggests waning upside momentum. We could see selling pressure prompt a challenge of trend support at 1370. A break of this level could trigger a breach of 1357, with the tertiary level at 1331. A breach of 1331 would bring into question the recent rally. Reaffirmation of trend support could set the scene for higher prices. Futures need to take out the recent high and then 1450 to regain upside momentum. The tertiary level is 1479. We anticipate prices to soften in the near term back to trend support.
NY Cocoa 2nd Month Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a test of support below 2694. Support for prices below this level triggered a close at 2691. The stochatics are starting to edge lower and we have seen a sell signal from the stochastics. The RSI and MACD diff are falling and we expect prices to weaken in the near term. Support for futures below 2694 could trigger gains back towards 2800 but selling pressure suggests lower prices back to 2600. A subsequent breach here could trigger losses back to the 50% fib level at 2513. We expect futures to weaken in the near term.
Ldn Cocoa 2nd Month Futures
Ldn cocoa futures buckled yesterday after prices failed abvoe 2500, this caused a close at 2444.94. The market has gapped lower this morning. The stochastics are weaker, and have given a sell signal. The MACD diff is also positive and converges on the upside suggesting lower prices in the near term. The break through support at 2400 has increased downside impetus. We expect the market to soften in the near term as selling pressure increases with 2300 a downside target.