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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures 

The market sold off on Friday as lack of appetite for prices prompted a close at 13.84. The stochastics are falling towards oversold but the MACD diff is negative but fails to diverge further. The RSI is falling but if prices hold above the 76.4% fib level at 13.79, and trend support we could see prices push back above 14 before targeting 14.17. These near term resistance levels need to be broken in order to regain upside conviction. To confirm the continuation of the upward trend, prices need to take out the recent high at 14.57. On the downside, a breach of the 76.4% fib level would bring into play the 100 DMA at 13.44. Secondary support stands at 13 and a break of this level would indicate a change in trend. We expect futures edge higher in the near term but futures need to close above 14.17.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures 

Futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure prompted a break of support and close at 392.50. The stochastics are falling into oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and starting to diverge once gain after Friday's selling pressure. The market has been well supported at 391.10 in recent weeks and this set the scene for higher prices back to 400, secondary resistance stands at 403.14 before targeting 409.70. A break above this level would confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 420. On the downside, the rejection of 400 and the bearish engulfing candle could trigger losses through immediate support at 391.10 at towards 383.43 which is the 61.8% fib level. The indicators are starting to plateau and this could trigger gains on the upside in th medium term. 

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures sold off on Friday after investors rejected prices above 120, prompting a close below support at 118, at 117.55. The stochastics are falling and are in neutral territory, the MACD diff has just switched to being negative and this indicates improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm the bearish engulfing candle, prices need to break below the 100 DMA at 115.72 before the 50% fib level at 115. Secondary support stands at 113.03 and this could trigger losses back to 110, a break of 115 would also confirm the triple top at 124.15. On the upside, there is a band support between 117 and 115 which has prompted futures to push higher. To regain upside conviction, futures need to close back abvoe 121.50 and then 124.15 in the medium term. Near term momentum is on the downside, and this could trigger losses back to 115. 

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures 

Ldn coffee futures failed into the 10 DMA at 1380, and this triggered a challenge of support at 1350, the market closed at 1355. The stochastics are falling towards oversold and the MACD diff is negative and diverging suggesting lower prices in the near term. The rejection of previous trend support outlines a rejection of higher prices, but futures need to take out support at 1350, before 1330. A break of this level would set the scene for lower prices towards 1300, and outline a change in trend. On the upside, support for prices at 1350 could trigger gains back to the 10 DMA before targeting the 76.4% fib level at 1391.68. The key level on the upside is 1400 and a break above this level would regain upside conviction and may set the scene for a test of 1450. However, near term momentum is on the downside and we expect further softness. 

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures 

NY cocoa futures held above support at 2612.97 but the market struggled above 2675, and clsoes at 2654. The stcastics are falling and the gap between them indicate stronger selling pressure. The MACD diff has converged on the upside which also outlines waning buying pressure. In order to confirm the outlook of lower prices, support at 2500 needs to be broken and this would confirm the rejection of 76.4% fib level. The 40 DMA is starting to rise and we expect this to provide support in the medium term. On the upside, futures need to close above 2694 in order to regain upside conviction. Superseding this level, resistance stands at 2736 before the psychological level at 2800. We expect prices to edge lower in the near term. 

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures consolidated on Friday, uncertainty in the market is outlined by the long legged doji. The market failed to hold onto the intraday high and this prompted a close at 2391. The stochastics are falling and the gap between them suggests lower prices, the MACD diff has switched to negative, outlining weak momentum in the market.  The market has gapped lower this morning, and negative sentiment is strong and we expect futures to test support at 2300. Superseding this level, we have support at the moving averges around 2240. Upside tails suggest some moderate buying pressure, but the bulls need to hold onto the intraday highs.  The key level on the upside is 2400 and this could trigger gians to 2450. We expect the marke to remain on the back foot in the near term to 2300. 

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