NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures buckled on Friday as selling pressure prompted a close on the back foot at 13.84. The RSI is falling towards the neutral territory, with the %K/%D diverging on the upside out of the oversold area. The MACD diff is converging on the upside, helping to suggest a change of trend in the near term. The rejection of prices above the 40 DMA this week, the bearish engulfing formation and weak close yesterday suggest lower prices towards the 76.4% fib level at 13.79 before the robust level at the 100 DMA of 13.58. On the upside, support for prices towards 14.00 could set the scene for higher prices back above 14.17. The 40 DMA has provided robust resistance in recent sessions, and if futures can gain a footing above this level, we could see the bulls target 14.27. Near term momentum favours the downside, and we expect this to remain the case today.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures sold off on Friday as lack of appetite for higher prices helped to confirm the rejection of bullish momentum, the market closed 391.50. Stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside near the oversold territory, MACD is negative and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The sell-off yesterday and the close on the lows suggest strong selling pressure and the break below the 10 DMA support at 393.06 confirms the outlook for lower prices. A break below 391.10 could set the scene for a test of support at the 385.50. The 100 DMA is at 383.55, and we expect robust support at this level. On the upside, support around the 40 DMA of 397.88 would help reaffirm the trend on the upside. The key level on the upside is 403 and if futures break above this level it could set the scene for higher prices to 408 in the medium term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures softened on Friday as traders rejected prices above 128, prompting a close at 125.25. The RSI is falling, and the MACD diff is positive and converging; the ADX is rising outlining the recent rally, but the rejection of the 127 and the long candle wicks suggest there is an appetite for lower prices. A break of support at 124 could trigger losses to the 10 DMA support level of 122.73. If this level holds firm, we could see prices trend higher back towards 132 in the longer term. If prices are well supported at 125, this could prompt a challenge of trend resistance of 128. We expect prices to retreat in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures failed above 1387 on Friday, prompting a close at 1380. The stochastics are losing momentum, and this could trigger a retracement back towards the 40 DMA level at 1369. A break of this level would set the scene for lower prices to 1363 where the 100 DMA is. A break here on the downside would confirm the outlook for lower prices. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance at 1387; there is a band of resistance between 1400 and 1422, where prices have failed recently. The 10 DMA has crossed above the 100 DMA, which could provide support to the futures in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures lost ground on Friday as intraday trading caused prices to close on the back foot at 2472. The stochastics are oversold, and this could trigger further losses in the near term through the 2434 level. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, which also adds to the downside impetus. Yesterday’s selling pressure prompted a test of trend support at 2482, appetite for prices below this level could trigger them back towards the 38.2% fib level at 2412. On the upside, the bulls need to gain a footing above the 50% fib level at 2513 in order to regain upside conviction. Appetite above this level could test the resistance of the 10 DMA at 2551.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa prices softened on Friday with intraday trading, but prices were supported at the 2215 level, and the market closed at 2225. The MACD diff is negative and diverging on the downside, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term. The stochastics are negative and oversold, and this has increased downside impetus. The market needs to take out support at the 2214 level and then 2186, which could trigger losses back towards the robust support level of 2147. On the upside, if prices find support above both 40 and 100 DMA levels, the market could set the scene for higher prices to 2279. Firm resistance at 100 DMA suggests a lack of appetite above the level, and we expect prices to retreat in the near term.