NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures softened yesterday after finding support above 10 DMA. The market closed at 15.29. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 10 DMA at 15.11. A break below this level would bring into play the 15.00 level, which could set the scene for trend support at 14.70. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 15.80 – the previous day’s high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 16.00; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The long lower wick points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see price edge lower in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Lnd sugar futures buckled yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 436.30. The stochastics are falling, and %K is still in the overbought territory, the RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices below the 10 DMA level at 434.14. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices down to 430 and then 32.8% fib level at 424. On the upside, a break above 440 resistance level and reaffirmation of support above previous sessions’ highs 450 could strengthen the trend on the upside in the long run. Futures need to take out the 10 DMA in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite for prices above 23.6% fib level 129.50, the market closed at 128.50. Stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is seen converging on the upside, confirming positive momentum. The MACD diff lacks conviction, pointing to market uncertainty. The DMI and ADX negative outlines the positive trend we have seen in recent weeks, and the indicators converging suggests an end to that trend in the near term. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 129.50 and then target trend resistance at 130. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 10 DMA at 126.78 could trigger losses back to the 76.4% fib levels at 125.80 before targeting 125. Buying pressure remains weak; mixed indicators and the doji candle confirm market uncertainty. The break below the support of 10 DMA could confirm the outlook of weaker prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Lnd coffee futures edged lower yesterday after prices broke below the 10 DMA at 1331, prompting a close at 1323. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside, and the MACD diff crossed into a negative, sending a sell signal. To confirm the bearish indicators, rejection of longer terms MAs and then fuller downside candles could outline the momentum, futures need to take out support at 1317 and then target 1300. On the upside, futures need to close above 10 DMA and then test 1350 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 100 DMA at 1356. We expect futures to weaken in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures weakened yesterday as futures failed into the resistance at 2523 and closed at 2508. The stochastics continue to rising as they emerge from oversold. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, pointing to a growing buying pressure. A break below 10 DMA 2479 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 2434 with the tertiary level at 200 DMA at 2425. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above at 2523 would suggest higher prices and a close above 40 DMA at 2553, setting the scene for higher prices towards 2600. Yesterday’s candle body being below Monday’s as well as the rejection of the longer-term MA and reaffirmation of resistance could trigger further losses in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2319. The stochastics are converging on the downside, with %K still in the overbought territory, but the MACD is positive and converging, pointing to a waning buying pressure. The rejection of prices above 2355 has formed a candle with a long wick on the downside, suggesting an appetite for lower prices, however, lacking the conviction to break above the near term support. If prices were to break below 40 DMA at 2303, this could trigger a test of 10 DMA at 2285 and then 100 DMA at 2265. On the upside, futures need to take out 2235 and then robust resistance at 2373. Indicators point to further selling pressure today, but the futures need to take out 40 DMA in the near term.