NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure prompted a test of 10 DMA 15.18. The market closed at 15.08. The stochastics are decreasing, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further bearish momentum in the near term. Prices have been testing 10 DMA for the last week, suggesting appetite above that level. Trend support has been robust, and a break below that level could break the trend and set prices down to 14.75 and 14.52. On the upside, a breach above the 10 DMA level would bring into play the recent firm resistance of 15.50, a pennant continuation pattern. Futures need to take 100% fib level at 15.80 in order to confirm the trend. The convergence of DMA and trend support provides strong support/resistance for prices, and if the latter remain firm, we could see prices edge higher.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 435.90. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are converging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming waning selling pressures. On the upside, finding support at the 10 DMA at 434.68 could trigger gains through 440 towards 449 – recent sessions' high. On the downside, a break below the key support level of 427.60 could trigger losses back towards 38.2% fib level at 423.59. The futures have struggled above the 10 DMA, and a break above that level could set the scene for higher prices in the near term. The bullish engulfing formation highlights that the selling pressure is subsiding, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged lower on Friday after prices failed above 126.50, prompting a close at 125. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D edging towards the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming the outlook for lower prices. To confirm the bearish indicators, futures need to break below the support at 40 DMA of 125.09 once again and then target 38.2% fib level at 121.50. On the upside, the 40 DMA support needs to hold and then test 10 DMA at 127.21 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. We expect prices to weaken in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee held the nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 1319. RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D is converging on the upside, confirming the change of trend in the near term. Likewise, the MACD is converging on the upside, confirming growing buying pressure. The DMI and ADX outline the negative trend we have seen in recent weeks, and the indicators converging suggests an end to that trend in the near term. To confirm positive momentum, prices need to close above 10 DMA at 1326 and then target 1333. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 1320 could trigger losses back to 1300, the long-term support level. Buying pressure has been weak, and the indicators point to an acceleration of that momentum. The narrow candle body and long wicks confirm market uncertainty. The break of resistance at 10 DMA could confirm the outlook for higher prices in the near-term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday and managed to close above 2450 at 2474. The indicators suggest we could see higher prices in the near term. The stochastics are converging on the upside; the RSI is rising; however, the MACD diff lacks the conviction to confirm the outlook. On the upside, a break above the 10 DMA at 2488 could then test the 40 DMA level at 2512. Superseding this level resistance stands at 2523. On the downside, if futures fail into 200 DMA at 2429, then we could see futures break back below 38.2% fib level at 2414. The narrowing DMA resistance suggests caps price potential; however, a break above the current resistance could pave the way for higher prices in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 40 DMA at 2284. The stochastics are falling, however, converging on the upside, while the MACD diff is positive and converging. The indicators are painting a mixed outlook, and to confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to take out 10 DMA at 2298 to then target trend resistance at 2304. On the downside, 100 DMA support level at 2260 is robust, and if this level does not hold firm, we could see prices retreat back through to 2250. A break above 40 DMA at 2277 is a strong buy signal; however, the futures need to take out 10 DMA to confirm the outlook for higher prices.