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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 15.70. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D is rising and diverging. The MACD diff crossed on the upside, a clear buy signal. On the upside, a break above 15.79 – the last weeks’ highs - could trigger gains through 16.00 towards trend resistance of 16.20. On the downside, a break below the key support level of 15.29 could trigger losses back towards 10 DMA at 15.21, and then trend support at 15.10 to confirm the outlook of lower prices in the longer term. We believe that prices will strengthen today to create a double top formation at 15.79, and if prices fail about that level, we could see a change of trend on the downside.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures consolidated on Friday as buying pressure prompted resistance at the 455, triggering a close at 453.40. The stochastics are rising, with the RSI and %K entering the overbought territory, outlining the improvement in positive sentiment. The MACD converged on the upside, supporting the outlook for growing buying pressure. In order to confirm a sustained bullish trend, and the positive indicators, prices need to find support above 449.60 today, which could pave the way for a test of 460 resistance level. On the downside, a break back to 440 could trigger further losses towards the 10 DMA at438/42. A breach of this level would confirm the downside trend. The candle broke above the previous weeks’ highs, suggesting an increased appetite for higher prices, but futures need to find support above that level to confirm the bullish outlook.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 127.85. This level held firm and the future closed at 125.65. The stochastics are rising, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, signalling waning selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, break above the resistance at the 23.6% fib level at 129.51 could set the scene for futures to take out the 130 level before targeting 131. On the downside, the market needs to take out the support of 40 DMA at 126.01 and then trend support at 125. The candle found support above both 10 and 40 DMAs; however, a doji candle signals uncertainty about the outlook for higher prices and the futures need to take out the 129 to confirm the outlook for higher prices.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Friday after futures tested 1367 to close at 1359. The stochastics are rising towards the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. To confirm the bullish indicators and rejection of prices below 1360, futures need to find support above this level and then target 1376. On the downside, futures need to close below 40, and 100 DMAs at 1349 and 1346 respectively order to confirm the outlook of lower prices towards 1320. Long upper wick points to an appetite for higher prices; however, weakness prevailed during the day. Prices need to take out current resistance to confirm the outlook for higher prices.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure prompted a test of 40 DMA at 2492. The market closed at 2472. The stochastics are about to converge on the upside, and the MACD diff is lacking the conviction to suggesting further bullish momentum in the near term. Prices have been trading between 40 and 200 DMA since mid-December, and narrowing support/resistance levels have narrowed the recent price change. In order to confirm the outlook on the upside, the prices need to break above 40 DMA at 2492 to target 2500 before 50% fib level at 2513.50 – also last week’s highs. On the downside, 200 DMA at 2433 has been robust, and a break below that level could set the trend down to 38.2% fib level at 2414 and 2400. The convergence of DMAs provides strong support/resistance for prices, and if the latter remain firm, we could see prices edge higher.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading saw prices break above the 10 DMA at 2284. The market closed at 2292. The RSI is rising, and %K/%D just converged on the upside, sending a strong buy signal. The MACD diff, however, lacks conviction. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term and appetite for prices above the trend resistance at 2300 could trigger a test of previous weeks’ resistance at 2327, secondary resistance stands at 2355. On the downside, to confirm the rejection of the resistance; prices need to take out 10 DMA at 2284. A break below this level towards 40 DMA 2267 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, a doji candle uncertainty about the outlook for lower prices and the futures need to take out the 10 DMA to confirm the outlook for falling prices. In the meantime, we believe prices will remain supported above the 10 DMA.



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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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