NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday after futures tested 15.59 to close at 15.64. The stochastics have broken below overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the weakening indicators and rejection of prices above 16.00, futures need to take out 10 DMA at 15.55 and then target 15.50. This would cause futures to break out of the ascending triangle formation, confirming the outlook for negative momentum. On the upside, futures need to close above 15.79 and 15.60 respectively in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 16.12 – the last week’s highs. Short wicks and a bearish candle point to an appetite for lower prices. Prices need to take out current support of 10 DMA to confirm the outlook for lower prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures softened on Friday after piercing the support level of 452.80. The market closed marginally lower at 452.60. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, paving the way for lower prices in the near term. The reaffirmation of support at 10 DMA at 449.96 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 460 level – recent highs. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 449.60 in order to confirm the bearish trend. The 10 DMA support level has been robust in recent weeks, and, a break below this level could help confirm lower prices in the near term to 453 and 440 respectively.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 124. This level held firm and the future closed at 123.05. The stochastics are falling, with %K trading in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, signalling growing selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support at 122 which could set the scene for futures to take out the 38.2% fib level at 121.50. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance of 124 and then trend support at 10 DMA at 125.24. The candle found support above both 122, and a long upper wick signals appetite for higher prices. If the futures break below the current support, we could see prices edge lower.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure prompted a test of 1376. The market closed at 1367. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside while trading in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting waning buying pressures. Prices have been supported by 40 and 100 moving averages in the last couple of weeks, however, a 10 DMA cross above them suggests that we could see higher prices in the near term. To confirm that outlook, prices need to break above 1376 to target 1380 before 23.6% fib level at 1385.57 – also December highs. On the downside, 10 DMA at 1354 is the near term support, and a break below that level could set the trend down to 40 and 100 DMA at 1350 and 1345 respectively. Prices struggled above 1376 last week, and convergence of DMAs to that level provides strong support for prices, and if the latter remain firm, we could prices edge higher.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite at 10 DMA at 2460, the market closed below 200 DMA at 2435 at 2433. Stochastics are falling, and %K/%D converged on the downside towards the oversold, confirming negative momentum. The MACD diff lacks conviction. To regain positive momentum, prices need to close above 10 DMA and then target 40 DMA at 2476. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 2434 could trigger losses back to the 38.2% fib level at 2414.03. Buying pressure remains weak; indicators point to an end of the buying pressure, and the doji candle confirms market uncertainty. The close below all three DMAs confirms bearish outlook in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged lower on Friday after prices failed above 2300, prompting a close at 2285. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside, and the MACD diff is lacking the conviction to confirm the outlook. On the downside, futures need to break below the support at 40 DMA of 2267 and then target 100 DMA level at 2255. On the upside, the 10 DMA support needs to hold and then test 2300 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. We expect prices to weaken in the near term.
