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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 15.84. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is negative and diverging, soon to enter the oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support, prices need to take out the 40 DMA at 15.61. A break below this level towards 15.50 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above 16.00 could trigger a test of resistance of 16.50; secondary resistance stands at 10 DMA at 16.60, back to last week’s levels. A positive doji candle after a bearish candle signal market uncertainty and narrowing support and resistance DMAs are creating a tighter trading range, a break out of which would set the scene for strong momentum. We anticipate prices on the back foot in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading saw prices tested support at 40 DMA at 442.21 once again. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting we could see a change in momentum in the near term. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 40 DMA in order to confirm the outlook of lower prices. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support at 440 could set the scene for higher prices back to 10 DMA at 453.70. Inverted hammer formation in the previous sessions confirms that the selling pressure has subsided, and the bull market is on the horizon; however, indicators paint a mixed picture. The market needs to gain a footing above 10 DMA in the immediate term to improve the outlook, as yesterday’s repeated failure above 450 suggests a lack of appetite for prices at this level.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures lost ground yesterday as intraday trading caused prices to close on the back foot below 10 DMA at 133.85. The stochastics are overbought and have converged on the downside, and this could trigger further losses in the near term through the 131 level. The MACD diff is positive and converging, which also adds to the downside impetus. Yesterday’s selling pressure prompted a break of 10 DMA support at 134.35 – the level held firm for that last couple of weeks - appetite for prices below this level could trigger back towards the 23.6% fib level at 129.51. On the upside, the bulls need to gain a footing above the 135.45 2513 in order to regain upside conviction. Appetite above this level could test the resistance at 140, the last week’s highs.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the 1460 support level; the market closed at 1450. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D converging in the overbought, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD is positive and converging, and the doji candle formation supports market indecisiveness. The bearish short-bodied candles point to market uncertainty; however, prices have found lower lows in the last couple of sessions; in order to confirm the negative momentum, prices need to break below the current support at 10 DMA at 1432 and then 1420.70. Conversely, support at 1450 could set the scene for a test of 1471. We expect prices to weaken today and remain on the back foot.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday after prices found support at 2600; this triggered a close at 2645. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging in the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting we could see futures test resistance at 2675 once again. The ADX is rising on the upside, suggesting a strengthening trend. On the downside, in order to confirm lower prices, futures need to close below the current support and 61.8% fib level at 2612.97. 2600 support level has been robust support, and the prices need to take out 2675 to confirm the outlook for higher prices.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading saw prices break above 2500 support. The market closed at 2515. The RSI is falling, and %K/%D is converging on the downside in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support; prices need to take out 2500. A break below this level towards 2450 would confirm the double top formation and a subsequent bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 2531 level could trigger a test of 2500. A doji candle after the three white soldiers formation signals uncertainty about the outlook for higher prices, and the futures need to take out 2500 to confirm the outlook for falling prices.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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