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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading caused the market to close below 40 DMA at 15.58 at 15.70. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The %K/%D is also falling; to confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close back below the trend support and then target 15.50. The 10 DMA is starting closing in and resisting prices on the upside. On the downside, rejection of prices around 15.29 could trigger gains back towards 16.00. A break above this level would confirm the trend on the upside. Two narrow-bodied candles in the last couple of sessions point to market uncertainty, and the futures need to break out of current resistance/support to confirm the longer-term outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures edged higher yesterday as intraday trading saw prices tested support at 40 DMA at 443.21. The market closed at 445.60. The RSI is rising, and %K/%D is negative and diverging, about to enter the oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support; prices need to take out 40 DMA at 443.21. A break below this level towards 427.60 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above 449.60 could trigger a test of 450.80; secondary resistance stands at 10 DMA at 452.81. A narrow-body candle suggests market uncertainty about the outlook for lower prices, and the futures need to take out the 40 DMA to confirm the outlook for falling prices.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures softened yesterday after finding support at 131. The market closed at 132.15. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 130. A break below this level would bring into play the 23.6% fib level at 125.80. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 134.65 – the previous day’s high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 10 DMA at 135.18; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The long lower wick points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see price edge lower in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures sold off yesterday after investors rejected prices above the trend support at 1420, prompting a close below at 1406. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D are diverging out of the overbought, suggesting a negative trend. The MACD diff is positive and about to converge on the downside, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle and form the three black crows formation, prices need to break below the support level at 1400 before the 23.6% fib level at 1385.57. Conversely, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 10 DMA at 1440 and then 1450 in the near term. Near term momentum is on the downside; the close below the shorter-term DMA confirms this trend.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as prices closed at 2625. The indicators continue to favour the upside, however, converging, with %K/%D converging in the overbought area, suggesting waning buying pressures. A break below 2600 would bring into play the recent sessions’ support level at 10 DMA at 2576. Prices have been relatively well supported above 2600, and in order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 2667 and then target 2675 in the near term. The hanging man candle formation suggests that while there was a sell-off during the day, the buyers had an appetite for higher prices. The break above the resistance level, however, would confirm the ascending triangle formation.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures lost ground yesterday as intraday trading caused prices to close on the back foot at 2514. The stochastics are oversold yet converging on the downside, and this could trigger further losses in the near term through the 2500 level. The MACD diff is positive and converging, which also adds to the downside impetus. Yesterday’s selling pressure prompted a test of support at 2500; appetite for prices below this level could trigger back towards the 10 DMA at 2468. On the upside, the bulls need to gain a footing above 2535, the previous day’s highs, in order to regain upside conviction. Indicators are pointing to a change in momentum, but prices need to break below the current support to confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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