NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures softened on Friday after finding support above 15.29. The market closed at 15.45. The stochastics are falling towards overbought territory; the %K/%D has recently converged on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative but lacked conviction. The recent selling pressure suggests that we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 15.29. A break below this level would bring into play the 15.00 level, which could set the scene for trend support at 15.00. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 10 DMA at 15.66 in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the level at 15.79; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The long lower wick points to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could see price edge lower in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures weakened on Friday as futures tested resistance at 440 and closed at 440.20. The stochastics continue to fall as they edge towards oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to growing selling pressure. A break below 436.50 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 430 with the tertiary level at 427.60. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above 10 and 40 DMA at 444.20 and 446.17, respectively, would suggest higher prices and a close above 449.60. Yesterday’s candle body being below Monday’s suggests an appetite for lower prices, and the indicators are pointing to a further fall in prices in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee softened on Friday as protracted selling pressure prompted a close below the 40 DMA of 129.69 at 129.00. The stochastics are falling, the %K/%D converged on the downside, suggesting further momentum on the downside. The MACD diff is negative and is diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure; the DMI is converging on the downside. The protracted selling pressure for the last couple of sessions suggests an appetite for lower prices. A complete break below the 23.6% fib level at 125.80 would trigger losses down to 126.60 and then 125.80. In order to confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above 131 and then take out 10 DMA at 131.49 to regain upside momentum. Near term momentum favours the downside, and we expect this to remain the case in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures failed above 10 DMA once again on Friday as prices closed at 1380. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D about to converge on the downside. The MACD is negative and diverging, pointing to lower prices in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards trend support at 100 DMA at 1372; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 1359. On the upside, a break of 10 DMA at 1397 and 1400 may prompt futures to retest previous sessions’ highs at 1417. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. Long upper and lower wicks point to an appetite out of the current trading range; however, the future needs to break below 100 DMA to confirm the outlook.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa sold off sharply on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 50% fib level support and 40 DMA, and closed on the back foot at 2506. The stochastics are falling, with %K entering the oversold territory, highlighting the recent selling pressure. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting increasing downside pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 100 DMA support level at 2454. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 2434. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 2547 has proven to be strong in recent sessions, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 2600. Long candle body along with long lower wick point to an increased appetite on the downside, however, the futures need to break completely below 40 DMA to confirm the outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Lnd cocoa futures lost ground on Friday after prices failed into the 40 DMA support level, prompting a close at 2365. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging as futures failed to confirm the outlook of higher prices after failing into 2368. Futures need to close above 2400 resistance and then target 38.2% fib level at 2434 in the medium run. On the downside, the long candle suggests increased appetite lower prices in the near term. Prices need to close below 2355 before targeting 2350. The repeated test of 40 DMA at 2368 and indicators point to an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.