NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar softened yesterday as protracted selling pressure prompted a close below the 15.29 support level at 15.18. The stochastics are falling towards the oversold, but the %K/%D is seen converging on the upside, suggesting we could see a change in momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and is diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The red candle body being below the previous day’s candle suggests that there is an appetite for lower prices, however, market was supported at 100 DMA. In order to confirm the outlook for another bearish candle, the market needs to break below 100 DMA at 14.89, which could set the scene for a test of 14.52, the lows last seen at the beginning of the year. On the upside, futures need to break back above 15.29 and then take out 15.50 to regain upside momentum. Near term momentum favours the downside, and we expect this to remain the case in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar weakened yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 431.50. The stochastics are falling; however, %K/%D is converging on the upside, whereas the RSI continues to edge lower. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. Protracted selling pressure prevailed but long lower wick pointed to an appetite above the lows. On the downside, bearish momentum could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 23.6% fib level at 429.50 support level. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 427.60. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 442.64 has proven to be strong, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 449.60. Narrowing support and resistance levels are creating a narrow trading range, but we believe that the prices will edge marginally lower today.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee sold off yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 40 DMA support and a close on the back foot at 129.65. The stochastics are falling, and the RSI has also edged lower, sending a sell signal. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting increasing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 128.25 support level. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 126.60 level. On the upside, a breach of resistance at 10 DMA at 131.71 and appetite for prices above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 135. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the 40 DMA support level; the market closed at 1377. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D just converging on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD is negative but lacks the conviction to confirm the outlook. The bearish long-bodied candles point to market appetite, however, prices have been trading in a narrow range bound by the support and resistance DMA; in order to confirm the negative momentum, prices need to break below the current support at 100 DMA at 1373 and then 1350. Conversely, support at 23.6% fib level at 1385.57 could set the scene for a test of 1412. We expect prices to weaken today and remain on the back foot.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close at 2461. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. A break of the 100 DMA at 2455 could trigger losses through 2434, with the secondary level at 2414. On the upside, a break above last sessions’ highs at 2525 could set the scene for bullish momentum. The long candle body and indicators point to more downside movement in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures lost ground yesterday as intraday trading caused prices to close on the back foot at 2319. The stochastics are oversold and diverging on the downside, and this could trigger further losses in the near term through the 100 DMA level. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, which also adds to downside impetus. Yesterday’s selling pressure prompted a test of support at 100 DMA; appetite for prices below this level could trigger towards 2300. On the upside, the bulls need to gain a footing above 2355, the previous day’s highs, in order to regain upside conviction. Indicators are pointing to a change in momentum, but prices need to break below the current support to confirm the outlook for lower prices.
