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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below 100 DMA level of 14.95; the market closed at 14.85. The stochastics are falling moderately, and %K/%D is trading in the oversold, still diverging. The MACD is negative, however, lacks conviction, and the doji candle formation supports market indecisiveness. A break below 100 DMA is a strong sell signal, however, prices struggled below 14.75, and in order to confirm the continuation of bearish momentum, prices need to break below the current support at 14.75 and then 14.52. Conversely, a break back above 100 DMA resistance level could set the scene for a test of 10 DMA at 15.22. We expect prices to weaken further and remain on the back foot, however, a break below current support at 14.75 is needed to confirm that outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures weakened yesterday as it closed below the trend support at 424.20. The stochastics continue to fall as they edge towards the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to growing selling pressure. A break below 420 would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 414.40, with the tertiary level at 409.70. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support above trend resistance at 425 would suggest higher prices and a close above 427.50, setting the scene for higher prices towards 429.50. Long upper wick suggests appetite for higher prices, however, the bears persevered and closed the futures near the previous day’s lows. The indicators point to a further decrease in prices in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures sold off yesterday after investors rejected prices above 129.51, prompting a close below 125.75 and 100 DMA at 125.36, at 124.65. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D is edging close to the oversold territory, suggesting for short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the 38.2% fib support level at 121.50 before the 120 level. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 23.6% fib level at 129.51 and then 131 in the near term. Near term momentum is on the downside, the close below the longer-term DMA confirms this trend.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Lnd coffee futures lost ground yesterday after prices failed into 10 and 40 DMA support levels, prompting a close at 1373. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside near the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging as futures failed to confirm the outlook for higher prices after failing into 1387. Futures need to close above 40 DMA at 1395 and then target 1400 in the near term. On the downside, the long candle suggests increased appetite lower prices. On the downside, prices need to close below the trend support before targeting 1350. The indicators suggest an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures sold off yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a break of support at 2414 before closing at 2384. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see prices continue to weaken in the near term. The close just off the low and the bearish indicators suggest we could see prices fall further and test 2355 in the coming sessions. The market was well supported above 2370 level, the candle’s lows, in recent sessions, creating a double bottom formation, then this could prompt a test back of 2513 once again. The bulls need to close above 100 DMA at 2457 in order to gain a foothold in the market and pave the way for higher prices in the longer run. Selling pressure has been strong, however we could see a change of trend if prices find support at current levels.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Prices weakened yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close below the 50% fib support level at 2301; the market closed at 2278. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D in the oversold, and the MACD is negative but lacks the conviction to confirm the outlook. The dip has been well bid after market uncertainty in the last couple of sessions, breaking out of the narrow trading range, but in order to confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the current support at 2250. Conversely, a break above 10 DMA at the 2335 resistance line could set the scene for a test of 2355. With short term DMA about to cross below the longer term one, we could see a continuation in a bearish trend, however, the prices need to break below current support to confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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