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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures picked up higher yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 16.72. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging on the upside in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, outlining recent market growth. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 16.00 could trigger losses back towards 10 DMA at 15.82; a break below the 40 DMA at 15.64 would confirm the outlook of lower prices in the longer term. On the upside, a break above 16.85 could trigger gains through trend resistance towards 17.50 – February highs. The market rally has been strong; however, prices have fluctuated around 16.50 and struggled to gain momentum. We could see prices trend even higher today, but futures need to break above 16.85 for this to be the case.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures gained ground yesterday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 455.10. The stochastics are rising with the %K/%D diverging in the oversold area, as the MACD diff is positive and diverging on the upside. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 469.60, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance of 460. On the downside, the candle found support at 449.60, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back through the 40 DMA at 440.81 before 10 DMA at 440.13. A break above the 449.60 and a bullish candle suggest increased positive momentum, but futures need to take out 460 in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures gained ground yesterday as protracted buying pressure prompted a test of the 135 level once again to close on the front foot at 134.45. The stochastics are rising, and the %K/%D seen diverging on the upside in the overbought, suggesting a buy signal in the near term. The MACD is positive, however, lacks conviction to suggest an improving sentiment. To confirm another bullish candle, futures need to break above the 135 and then target the 136.15. On the downside, the break below 131 could set the scene for lower prices towards the support of 23.6% fib level at 129.51. However, the market struggled below the immediate support, and the shorter term DMA crossing above the longer-term one suggest a strong buy signal. We believe that prices will strengthen in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures failed above 40 DMA once again yesterday as prices closed at 1398. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D entering the overbought territory. The MACD is positive and diverging, pointing to higher prices in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards trend support at 1376, a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 100 DMA at 1373. On the upside, a break of 40 DMA at 1398 and then 1400 may prompt futures to retest March highs at 1420. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. Long upper and short lower wicks point to an appetite for higher prices; however, the future needs to break above 40 DMA to confirm the outlook.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa sold off sharply yesterday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 2434 level support and a close on the back foot at 2419. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging out of the overbought, and the RSI has also edged lower, sending a sell signal. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting increasing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 2400 support level. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 2377 level. On the upside, resistance at 40 DMA at 2500 has proven to be strong, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 50% fib level at 2513. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impeding market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures failed the trend support once again yesterday as prices closed at 2249. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside near the oversold territory. The MACD is positive, however, lacks conviction to point out an outlook. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a complete break below the trend support at 2500; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 38.2% fib level at 2211. On the upside, a break of 50% fib level at 2301 may prompt futures to retest last week’s highs at 100 DMA at 2323. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. Long upper and short lower wicks point to protracted selling pressure during the day; however, the future needs to break below the trend support to confirm the outlook.

Contents

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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