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Non-independent Research Daily Softs Technical Charts

Non-independent Research

Daily Softs Technical Charts

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures softened on Friday after finding support above 16.80. The market closed at 16.84. The stochastics continue to soften, with %K in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through support 16.80. A break below this level would bring into play the 40 DMA level at 16.46, which could set the scene for trend support at 16.07 in the longer term. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 17.26 – the previous day’s high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the 10 DMA at 17.34; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. A longer lower wick, where most of the trading took place in the upper ranges, points to further selling pressures, however, prices need to break below the current support level to confirm the outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar sold off sharply on Friday, as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of 452.80 and 449.60 support levels and closed on the back foot at 448.50. The stochastics are falling, with %K entering the oversold territory, highlighting the recent selling pressure. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting increasing downside pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 40 DMA support level at 448.32. A break below this level would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to the 100 DMA level at 443.38. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 460.63 has proven to be strong in recent sessions, and support above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 470. Long candle body along with negative indicators point to an increased appetite on the downside, and we could prices edge lower in the near term.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 152.10. The stochastics are rising, yet converging, with the %K edging close to the overbought territory; however, the MACD diff has lacked conviction as it fluctuated between gains and losses for the last week. A break of the 10 DMA at 420 could trigger losses through 415, with the secondary level at 414.40. On the upside, a break above previous sessions’ highs at 155.55 could set the scene for a test of 158.25, pointing to a change of trend for more bullish momentum. Conversely, if prices break support at 10 DMA at 149.26, we could see futures test 146.95 level. Friday’s spinning top formation points to market indecisiveness about the outlook for lower prices, and we need the futures to break support at 10 DMA to confirm the outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures buckled on Friday after investors rejected prices above 10 DMA, prompting a close below at 1479. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D is diverging on the downside and edging close to the oversold territory, suggesting for short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 1469 before the 23.6% fib level at 1451. Secondary support stands at 40 DMA 1433. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 10 DMA at 1496 and then 1500 in the near term. Near term momentum is on the downside, outlined by three black crows formation, the close below the shorter-term DMA confirms this trend.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite at 2510 once again and then close at 2499. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging out of the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and converging. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 10 DMA at 2514 and then target the resistance level at 2523. The 10 DMA jumped to become resistance for futures prices, capping the upside potential in the near term. On the downside, if prices fail above 2500, this could trigger losses towards 40 DMA at 2450 in the medium term. We believe that the market may be due to a correction in the near term; however, a break of near term support at 2475 would help solidify the outlook.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn cocoa futures softened on Friday as moderate selling pressure saw prices tested support at 100 DMA at 2323. The market closed at 2334. The RSI is rising marginally, and %K/%D is diverging on the downside. The MACD diff is positive and converging and about to converge on the downside, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support, prices need to take out 100 DMA. A break below this level towards 40 DMA at 2302 would confirm the strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above 2355 could trigger a test of resistance at 2373, secondary resistance stands at 10 DMA at 2375. A doji candle after the three black crows formation signals uncertainty about the outlook for lower prices, and the futures need to take out the 100 DMA to confirm the outlook for falling prices.

Contents

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